Upcoming economic events 2 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
07:30		2 points	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	———	———
09:00		2 points	Unemployment Rate (Aug)	6.4%	6.4%
09:30		2 points	ECB’s Lane Speaks	———	———
10:00		2 points	OPEC Meeting	———	———
11:00		2 points	ECB’s Elderson Speaks	———	———
12:15		3 points	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep)	124K	99K
14:30		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	———	-4.471M
14:30		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———	0.116M
15:00		2 points	FOMC Member Bowman Speaks	———	———
16:45		2 points	ECB’s Schnabel Speaks	———	———

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 2, 2024

1. ECB’s De Guindos Speaks (07:30 UTC): Remarks from ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, likely focusing on Eurozone economic conditions or inflation.
2. Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Aug) (09:00 UTC): The unemployment rate in the Eurozone. Forecast: 6.4%, Previous: 6.4%. Stability in the unemployment rate may indicate steady labor market conditions.
3. ECB’s Lane Speaks (09:30 UTC): Commentary from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane, possibly addressing inflation or economic growth forecasts.
4. OPEC Meeting (10:00 UTC): A meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, where decisions on oil production targets will impact global oil markets.
5. ECB’s Elderson Speaks (11:00 UTC): Insights from ECB Executive Board Member Frank Elderson, which may focus on financial stability or climate-related risks in the Eurozone.
6. US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Sep) (12:15 UTC): A key measure of US private sector employment growth. Forecast: +124K, Previous: +99K. This will offer a preview of official nonfarm payrolls, impacting expectations for US economic growth.
7. US Crude Oil Inventories (14:30 UTC): Weekly report on changes in US crude oil inventories. Previous: -4.471M. A further drop in inventories could support higher oil prices.
8. US Cushing Crude Oil Inventories (14:30 UTC): Changes in crude inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub. Previous: +0.116M.
9. FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (15:00 UTC): Remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, possibly discussing the US economic outlook or inflation.
10. ECB’s Schnabel Speaks (16:45 UTC): Commentary from ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel, potentially addressing inflation or monetary policy.

Market Impact Analysis

• Eurozone Unemployment & ECB Speeches: Stability in the unemployment rate may support the view of steady labor market conditions. Remarks from key ECB officials could shape expectations around future monetary policy, influencing EUR.
• US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change: A higher-than-expected ADP figure would signal strength in the US labor market, potentially boosting USD, while a weaker figure could suggest slowing economic activity.
• OPEC Meeting & Crude Oil Inventories: Decisions on oil production from OPEC, along with US crude oil inventory data, will directly impact oil prices. A reduction in supply or further declines in inventories would support higher oil prices, influencing commodity-linked currencies like CAD.

Overall Impact

• Volatility: Moderate, driven by key employment data from the US, OPEC’s meeting, and ECB speeches that could influence EUR and USD.
• Impact Score: 7/10, with a focus on oil market dynamics and labor market data affecting broader market sentiment.