Upcoming economic events 2 July 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	Building Approvals (MoM) (May)	5.0%	-5.7%
01:30		2 points	Retail Sales (MoM) (May)	0.3%	-0.1%
08:00		2 points	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	———-	———-
09:00		2 points	Unemployment Rate (May)	6.2%	6.2%
10:30		2 points	ECB’s Lane Speaks	———-	———-
12:15		3 points	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun)	105K	37K
14:15		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———-	———-
14:30		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	-2.260M	-5.836M
14:30		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———-	-0.464M

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 24, 2025

Australia

Building Approvals & Retail Sales (May) – 01:30 UTC

• Expected approvals: +5.0% (prior –5.7%)
• Retail sales forecast: +0.3% (prior –0.1%)
• Implications: A rebound in both metrics could indicate a pickup in domestic demand, potentially supporting AUD and Australian equities. Subdued results would likely dampen sentiment and reinforce expectations of continued RBA policy accommodation.

Eurozone

ECB Speeches

• De Guindos – 08:00 UTC
• Lane – 10:30 UTC
• Lagarde – 14:15 UTC
• Unemployment Rate (May) – 09:00 UTC (expected steady at 6.2%)
• Implications: With ECB commentary throughout the morning, markets will look for forward guidance. Any shift toward a more hawkish tone could lift the euro and bond yields, whereas dovish signals may keep them capped. Stable unemployment supports the ECB staying on hold.

United States

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jun) – 12:15 UTC

• Forecast: +105K (prior +37K)
• Implications: A strong job additions report may feed into expectations for a resilient labor market, reducing odds of Fed rate cuts this cycle and boosting USD and Treasury yields. A weak reading would support dovish policy bets.

Crude Oil & Cushing Inventories – 14:30 UTC

• Forecast: –2.260M (prior –5.836M draw)
• Implications: Continued stock draws would reinforce upward pressure on oil prices, feeding into inflation expectations and benefiting energy-related stocks. A build could reverse that trend.

Market Impact Analysis

• Australia: Early data may shape AUD and equity risk tone, especially if surprises emerge.
• Eurozone: Hawkish or dovish modulation from ECB speakers will be pivotal for EUR swings.
• United States: ADP job numbers and oil inventory data are key for USD, bonds, and commodity markets.

Overall Impact Score: 8/10

Key Focus:

• Audiences: ADP employment report and ECB commentary.
• Dynamics: Expect volatility around USD, EUR, AUD, and oil sectors, especially in late morning through afternoon sessions.
• Strategic takeaways: Strong jobs and oil draw data could reinforce perception of a sticky inflation environment, delaying rate cuts and shifting positioning in global markets.