Upcoming economic events 2 January 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:45		2 points	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Dec)	51.6	51.5
09:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Dec)	45.2	45.2
13:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	45.2	1,910K
13:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	220K	219K
14:45		3 points	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Dec)	48.3	49.7
15:00		2 points	Construction Spending (MoM) (Nov)	0.3%	0.4%
16:00		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	45.2	-4.237M
16:00		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	45.2	-0.320M
18:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	3.1%	3.1%
21:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	45.2	6,886B

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on January 2, 2025

1. China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (01:45 UTC):
   • Forecast: 51.6, Previous: 51.5.
     PMI readings above 50 indicate expansion in manufacturing activity. Stable or improving numbers signal economic resilience, potentially boosting global risk sentiment and supporting commodity-linked currencies like AUD.
2. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (09:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 45.2, Previous: 45.2.
     A reading below 50 reflects contraction. A better-than-expected result would support the EUR by indicating resilience in the manufacturing sector. Weak results may weigh on the currency.
3. US Labor Market Data (13:30 UTC):
   • Continuing Jobless Claims: Previous: 1,910K.
   • Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast: 220K, Previous: 219K.
     Jobless claims provide insights into labor market conditions. Lower claims signal economic strength, supporting the USD, while higher claims could weigh on the currency.
4. US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (14:45 UTC):
   • Forecast: 48.3, Previous: 49.7.
     A PMI below 50 indicates contraction. A better-than-expected result could bolster the USD, while weaker data would suggest ongoing manufacturing weakness.
5. US Construction Spending (15:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.4%.
     Tracks investment in construction. Positive growth supports the USD, reflecting economic activity in the housing and infrastructure sectors.
6. US Crude Oil Inventories (16:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: -4.237M, Previous: -4.237M.
     A drawdown indicates strong demand, supporting oil prices and commodity-linked currencies. Builds would signal weaker demand, pressuring prices.
7. US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (18:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 3.1%, Previous: 3.1%.
     Tracks real-time GDP growth estimates. Stable or improving numbers would support the USD, while declines might signal slowing economic momentum.
8. US Fed’s Balance Sheet (21:30 UTC):
   • Previous: 6,886B.
     Changes in the Fed’s balance sheet size could hint at monetary policy adjustments or liquidity shifts, indirectly influencing the USD.

Market Impact Analysis

• China & Eurozone PMI Data:
  • Positive Scenario: PMI readings above expectations suggest economic resilience, supporting risk sentiment and global growth currencies like EUR and AUD.
  • Negative Scenario: Weak PMI results would weigh on these currencies and risk appetite.
• US Labor Data:
  • Positive Scenario: Lower jobless claims reflect labor market strength, supporting the USD.
  • Negative Scenario: Higher claims signal economic weakness, weighing on the USD.
• US Crude Oil Inventories:
  Drawdowns would boost oil prices, benefiting commodity-linked currencies. Builds could pressure prices and associated currencies.
• US GDPNow & Balance Sheet Data:
  Stable or improving GDP estimates support USD strength. Significant changes in the Fed’s balance sheet could indicate monetary policy adjustments, influencing market sentiment.

Overall Impact

Volatility: Moderate to high, driven by PMI results, labor data, and crude oil inventories.

Impact Score: 7/10, with global PMI and US labor data shaping sentiment and influencing key currencies.