Upcoming economic events 2 December 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct)	1.2%	4.4%
00:30		2 points	Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) (Q3)	0.6%	-5.3%
01:30		2 points	Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)	0.4%	0.1%
01:45		2 points	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)	50.6	50.3
09:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Nov)	45.2	46.0
10:00		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———	———
10:00		2 points	Unemployment Rate (Oct)	6.3%	6.3%
14:45		3 points	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Nov)	48.8	48.5
15:00		2 points	Construction Spending (MoM) (Oct)	0.2%	0.1%
15:00		2 points	ISM Manufacturing Employment (Nov)	———	44.4
15:00		3 points	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov)	47.7	46.5
15:00		3 points	ISM Manufacturing Prices (Nov)	55.2	54.8
20:15		2 points	Fed Waller Speaks	———	———
20:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———	193.9K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———	234.4K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———	19.8K
20:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———	34.9K
20:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———	31.6K
20:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———	-46.9K
20:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———	-42.6K
21:30		2 points	FOMC Member Williams Speaks	———	———

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 2, 2024

1. Australia Economic Data (00:30–01:30 UTC):
   • Building Approvals (MoM) (Oct): Forecast: 1.2%, Previous: 4.4%.
     Measures changes in the number of new building projects approved. A lower figure could weigh on the AUD, while strong approvals would signal resilience in the construction sector.
   • Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ) (Q3): Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: -5.3%.
     Reflects corporate profitability. A rebound would support the AUD, indicating economic improvement.
   • Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct): Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.1%.
     Rising retail sales suggest strong consumer demand, supporting the AUD, while weaker figures would signal caution among consumers.
2. China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov) (01:45 UTC):
   • Forecast: 50.6, Previous: 50.3.
     A reading above 50 indicates expansion in manufacturing. Stronger data would support the CNY and boost risk sentiment globally, while weaker data would indicate slowing activity.
3. Eurozone Economic Data (09:00–10:00 UTC):
   • HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov): Forecast: 45.2, Previous: 46.0.
     PMI below 50 indicates contraction. A weaker figure could weigh on the EUR, while an improvement signals a potential recovery.
   • Unemployment Rate (Oct): Forecast: 6.3%, Previous: 6.3%.
     Stable unemployment suggests a resilient labor market, supporting the EUR.
   • ECB President Lagarde Speaks (10:00 UTC):
     Hawkish comments would support the EUR by reinforcing tightening expectations, while dovish remarks could soften the currency.
4. US Manufacturing and Construction Data (14:45–15:00 UTC):
   • S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Nov): Forecast: 48.8, Previous: 48.5.
   • ISM Manufacturing PMI (Nov): Forecast: 47.7, Previous: 46.5.
   • ISM Manufacturing Prices (Nov): Forecast: 55.2, Previous: 54.8.
   • Construction Spending (MoM) (Oct): Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.1%.
     Improvement in manufacturing PMIs or construction spending would indicate economic resilience, supporting the USD. Further contraction in PMI or weak spending figures could weigh on the currency.
5. CFTC Speculative Positions (20:30 UTC):
   • Tracks speculative sentiment in crude oil, gold, equities, and major currencies.
     Changes in net positions reflect shifts in market sentiment and future trends.
6. Fed Commentary (20:15 & 21:30 UTC):
   • Fed Waller Speaks (20:15 UTC): Insights into Fed policy direction.
   • FOMC Member Williams Speaks (21:30 UTC): May influence expectations for inflation and interest rate paths. Hawkish tones would support the USD, while dovish remarks could weigh on it.

Market Impact Analysis

• Australian Data:
  Rebounding corporate profits, higher retail sales, or strong building approvals would support the AUD, signaling economic recovery. Weak data could dampen sentiment.
• China Manufacturing PMI:
  A stronger reading would support global risk sentiment and commodity-linked currencies like AUD, while weaker data could signal slowing global demand.
• Eurozone Data & Lagarde Speech:
  Stronger PMI or unemployment data and hawkish ECB commentary would support the EUR. Weaker manufacturing figures or dovish remarks could weigh on the currency.
• US Manufacturing Data & Fed Commentary:
  Resilience in ISM and S&P PMIs, construction spending, or hawkish Fed commentary would reinforce USD strength. Weak data or dovish remarks could soften the currency.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate to high, with a focus on global manufacturing data, ECB and Fed commentary, and US inflation-linked manufacturing figures.

Impact Score: 7/10, with key influences from China PMI, US manufacturing and construction data, and central bank commentary shaping short-term market sentiment.