Upcoming economic events 19 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	RBA Meeting Minutes	———	———
08:45		2 points	ECB’s Elderson Speaks	———	———
10:00		2 points	Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)	2.7%	2.7%
10:00		3 points	CPI (YoY) (Oct)	2.0%	2.0%
10:00		2 points	CPI (MoM) (Oct)	0.3%	-0.1%
13:30		2 points	Building Permits (Oct)	1.440M	1.425M
13:30		2 points	Housing Starts (MoM) (Oct)	———	-0.5%
13:30		2 points	Housing Starts (Oct)	1.340M	1.354M
16:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	2.5%	2.5%
21:30		2 points	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	———	-0.777M
23:50		2 points	Adjusted Trade Balance	-0.15T	-0.19T
23:50		2 points	Exports (YoY) (Oct)	2.2%	-1.7%
23:50		2 points	Trade Balance (Oct)	-360.4B	-294.1B

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 19, 2024

1. RBA Meeting Minutes (00:30 UTC):
   Provides details of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy discussions, offering insights into the bank’s economic outlook and potential future monetary policy actions. Hawkish tone would support the AUD, while dovish commentary may weigh on it.
2. ECB’s Elderson Speaks (08:45 UTC):
   ECB Executive Board Member Frank Elderson may discuss financial stability and economic conditions in the Eurozone. Any hawkish tone could support the EUR, while dovish remarks might dampen it.
3. Eurozone CPI Data (10:00 UTC):

• Core CPI (YoY) (Oct): Forecast: 2.7%, Previous: 2.7%.
• CPI (YoY) (Oct): Forecast: 2.0%, Previous: 2.0%.
• CPI (MoM) (Oct): Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: -0.1%.
  Stable or rising CPI figures would support the EUR by indicating persistent inflation, while weaker-than-expected numbers could weigh on the currency.

1. US Building Permits & Housing Starts (13:30 UTC):

• Building Permits (Oct): Forecast: 1.440M, Previous: 1.425M.
• Housing Starts (MoM) (Oct): Previous: -0.5%.
• Housing Starts (Oct): Forecast: 1.340M, Previous: 1.354M.
  Strong building permits or housing starts data would indicate resilience in the US housing market, supporting the USD. Weak data may signal slowing economic activity, weighing on the currency.

1. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) (16:30 UTC):
   Current forecast: 2.5%. Updates to this real-time GDP estimate may influence USD sentiment, especially if adjustments signal stronger or weaker growth.
2. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30 UTC):
   Measures weekly changes in US crude oil inventories. Previous: -0.777M. A decline would suggest strong demand, supporting oil prices, while a build indicates weaker demand, potentially pressuring prices.
3. Japan Trade Data (23:50 UTC):

• Adjusted Trade Balance (Oct): Forecast: -0.15T, Previous: -0.19T.
• Exports (YoY) (Oct): Forecast: 2.2%, Previous: -1.7%.
• Trade Balance (Oct): Forecast: -360.4B, Previous: -294.1B.
  Improving trade figures or rising exports would signal economic strength, supporting the JPY. Weaker data may weigh on the currency.

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Market Impact Analysis

• RBA Meeting Minutes:
  A hawkish tone would support the AUD, particularly if the minutes suggest concern about inflation or further rate hikes. Dovish signals may weaken the AUD.
• Eurozone CPI Data & ECB Elderson Speech:
  Stable or higher-than-expected CPI figures would reinforce the need for tighter monetary policy, supporting the EUR. Lower CPI figures or dovish remarks from Elderson could weaken the EUR.
• US Housing Data:
  Strong building permits or housing starts would indicate resilience in the US housing market, supporting the USD. Weak figures may signal economic slowing, weighing on the currency.
• Japan Trade Data:
  Improved trade balances or positive export growth would signal recovery in Japan’s external sector, supporting the JPY. Weak data would suggest ongoing challenges, potentially softening the currency.
• API Crude Oil Stock:
  A larger drawdown would support oil prices and commodity-linked currencies, while a build would signal weaker demand, potentially weighing on oil prices.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with key focus on Eurozone inflation data, US housing market indicators, and Japan’s trade figures. Market sensitivity will also hinge on RBA meeting minutes and energy market dynamics.

Impact Score: 6/10, driven by housing, inflation, and trade data from major economies that will shape short-term sentiment for currencies and commodities.