Upcoming economic events 18 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
02:00		2 points	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Sep)	3.3%	3.4%
02:00		2 points	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	1.0%	0.7%
02:00		3 points	GDP (YoY) (Q3)	4.6%	4.7%
02:00		2 points	Chinese GDP YTD (YoY) (Q3)	———	5.0%
02:00		2 points	Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)	4.6%	4.5%
02:00		2 points	Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Sep)	———	5.8%
02:00		2 points	Chinese Unemployment Rate (Sep)	5.3%	5.3%
02:00		2 points	NBS Press Conference	———	———
10:00		2 points	EU Leaders Summit	———	———
12:30		2 points	Building Permits (Sep)	1.450M	1.470M
12:30		2 points	Housing Starts (Sep)	1.350M	1.356M
12:30		2 points	Housing Starts (MoM) (Sep)	———	9.6%
13:30		2 points	FOMC Member Bostic Speaks	———	———
14:00		2 points	FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks	———	———
14:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)	3.4%	3.4%
16:10		2 points	Fed Waller Speaks	———	———
16:30		2 points	FOMC Member Bostic Speaks	———	———
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———	481
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———	586
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———	190.6K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———	278.2K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———	13.3K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———	-5.6K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———	33.4K
19:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———	36.5K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———	39.1K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 18, 2024

1. China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Sep) (02:00 UTC):
   Measures investment in physical assets like infrastructure and machinery. Forecast: 3.3%, Previous: 3.4%. Slower growth could signal cooling investment activity in China.
2. China GDP (QoQ) (Q3) (02:00 UTC):
   Quarterly growth of China’s economy. Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: 0.7%. A stronger-than-expected result would indicate robust economic expansion.
3. China GDP (YoY) (Q3) (02:00 UTC):
   Annual growth of China’s economy. Forecast: 4.6%, Previous: 4.7%. Slower-than-expected growth may signal economic headwinds, while strong growth would indicate resilience.
4. China GDP YTD (YoY) (Q3) (02:00 UTC):
   Tracks the cumulative growth of the economy year-to-date. Previous: 5.0%.
5. China Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) (02:00 UTC):
   Measures the output of China’s industrial sector. Forecast: 4.6%, Previous: 4.5%. A rise in industrial production would indicate improved demand.
6. China Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Sep) (02:00 UTC):
   Year-to-date growth in industrial output. Previous: 5.8%.
7. China Unemployment Rate (Sep) (02:00 UTC):
   Measures the percentage of the workforce that is unemployed. Forecast: 5.3%, Previous: 5.3%. Stable unemployment suggests steady labor market conditions.
8. NBS Press Conference (02:00 UTC):
   A press conference by China’s National Bureau of Statistics, likely to discuss the country’s economic performance and outlook.
9. EU Leaders Summit (10:00 UTC):
   A meeting of European Union leaders to discuss political and economic matters. Key policy decisions may impact the EUR.
10. US Building Permits (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
    Measures the number of new building permits issued. Forecast: 1.450M, Previous: 1.470M. A decline may signal slower housing market activity.
11. US Housing Starts (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
    Tracks the number of new residential construction projects. Forecast: 1.350M, Previous: 1.356M. A decline suggests weaker demand for new homes.
12. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) (14:30 UTC):
    A real-time estimate of US GDP growth. Forecast: 3.4%, Previous: 3.4%.
13. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (13:30 & 16:30 UTC):
    Comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic may provide insights into US monetary policy and the Fed’s outlook on inflation and interest rates.
14. FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks (14:00 UTC):
    Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, may offer further commentary on US economic conditions and future interest rate decisions.
15. Fed Waller Speaks (16:10 UTC):
    Remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, which could offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction.
16. US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (17:00 UTC):
    Tracks the number of active oil rigs. Previous: 481. A rising count may indicate increased oil production.
17. US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (17:00 UTC):
    Measures the total number of active oil and gas rigs. Previous: 586.
18. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    • Crude Oil Net Positions (Previous: 190.6K): Indicates market sentiment toward crude oil prices.
    • Gold Net Positions (Previous: 278.2K): Reflects sentiment toward gold prices, with higher net longs signaling bullish sentiment.
    • Nasdaq 100 Net Positions (Previous: 13.3K): Shows market positioning in tech stocks.
    • S&P 500 Net Positions (Previous: -5.6K): Reflects sentiment in the broader US stock market.
    • AUD Net Positions (Previous: 33.4K): Measures speculative positions on the Australian dollar.
    • JPY Net Positions (Previous: 36.5K): Shows speculative sentiment for the Japanese yen.
    • EUR Net Positions (Previous: 39.1K): Reflects speculative market sentiment toward the euro.

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Market Impact Analysis

• China GDP, Industrial Production, and Unemployment Data:
  Stronger-than-expected GDP and industrial production figures would support risk assets and commodities, signaling robust economic activity in China. Weaker-than-expected results may raise concerns about global growth, affecting risk sentiment and weighing on currencies linked to global demand, such as the AUD.
• US Building Permits & Housing Starts:
  A decline in building permits or housing starts would signal a slowdown in the housing market, which could weigh on the USD. Stronger-than-expected data would suggest resilience in the US housing sector.
• Fed Speeches (Bostic, Kashkari, Waller):
  Hawkish remarks from Fed officials would support the USD by increasing expectations of further rate hikes, while dovish commentary may weigh on the currency.
• CFTC Speculative Positions:
  Changes in speculative positioning provide insight into market sentiment across various asset classes. A rise in net long positions in commodities like crude oil or gold signals bullish sentiment, while shifts in equity and currency positioning offer clues about market risk appetite.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with significant attention on Chinese economic data, US housing market figures, and Fed speeches. Markets will closely watch Chinese GDP and industrial production for clues on global economic momentum, while Fed officials’ comments will shape expectations for US monetary policy.

Impact Score: 7/10, with the combination of key economic data from China and US housing figures expected to influence global risk sentiment and expectations for future central bank actions.