Upcoming economic events 18 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
06:30		2 points	RBA Assist Gov Kent Speaks	———	———
08:15		2 points	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	———	———
10:00		2 points	Trade Balance (Sep)	7.9B	4.6В
13:00		2 points	ECB’s Lane Speaks	———	———
18:30		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———	———
21:00		2 points	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Sep)	114.3B	111.4B

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 18, 2024

1. RBA Assistant Governor Kent Speaks (06:30 UTC):
   Remarks from RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent may provide insights into the Reserve Bank of Australia’s view on economic conditions and monetary policy, influencing the AUD.
2. ECB’s De Guindos Speaks (08:15 UTC):
   ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos may discuss the Eurozone’s economic outlook, inflation, or monetary policy. Hawkish comments would support the EUR, while dovish remarks could weigh on it.
3. Eurozone Trade Balance (Sep) (10:00 UTC):
   Measures the difference between exports and imports. Forecast: €7.9B, Previous: €4.6B. A larger surplus would signal stronger export performance, supporting the EUR, while a smaller surplus would indicate weaker trade activity.
4. ECB’s Lane Speaks (13:00 UTC):
   Remarks from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane could provide further insights into the ECB’s views on inflation and growth, potentially impacting the EUR.
5. ECB President Lagarde Speaks (18:30 UTC):
   ECB President Christine Lagarde’s comments will be closely watched for signals on monetary policy direction. Hawkish tones would support the EUR, while dovish signals might weaken it.
6. US TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Sep) (21:00 UTC):
   Measures foreign and domestic purchases of long-term securities. Previous: $111.4B, Forecast: $114.3B. Increased purchases indicate strong demand for US assets, which would support the USD.

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Market Impact Analysis

• RBA Assistant Governor Kent Speech:
  Any hawkish commentary signaling tighter monetary policy would support the AUD. Dovish remarks suggesting economic challenges may weigh on the currency.
• Eurozone Trade Balance:
  A larger trade surplus would indicate strong export activity, supporting the EUR. A smaller surplus could suggest weak external demand, potentially dampening EUR sentiment.
• ECB Speeches (De Guindos, Lane, Lagarde):
  Hawkish tones from ECB officials would reinforce expectations for further tightening, supporting the EUR. Dovish commentary emphasizing economic risks or caution could weigh on the currency.
• US TIC Net Long-Term Transactions:
  Higher-than-expected net transactions would signal robust foreign demand for US securities, supporting the USD. Lower figures could indicate reduced confidence in US assets, potentially weighing on the currency.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with focus on speeches from ECB officials, the Eurozone trade balance, and US foreign investment data. Markets will be sensitive to central bank commentary and trade figures.

Impact Score: 6/10, with moderate chances of market movement based on ECB policy insights, trade data, and demand for US long-term securities.