Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | | Previous |
| 07:30 |  | 2 points | ECB’s Elderson Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 09:00 | | 2 points | Core CPI (YoY) (May) | 2.3% | 2.7% |
| 09:00 | | 2 points | CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.0% | 0.6% |
| 09:00 | | 3 points | CPI (YoY) (May) | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| 12:30 |  | 2 points | Building Permits (May) | 1.430M | 1.422M |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Continuing Jobless Claims | ———- | 1,956K |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Housing Starts (May) | 1.360M | 1.361M |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Housing Starts (MoM) (May) | ———- | 1.6% |
| 12:30 | | 3 points | Initial Jobless Claims | ———- | 248K |
| 14:30 | | 3 points | Crude Oil Inventories | ———- | -3.644M |
| 14:30 | | 2 points | Cushing Crude Oil Inventories | ———- | -0.403M |
| 15:00 | | 2 points | ECB’s Lane Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 15:30 | | 2 points | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) | ———- | ———- |
| 18:00 | | 2 points | Interest Rate Projection – 1st Yr (Q2) | ———- | 3.4% |
| 18:00 | | 2 points | Interest Rate Projection – 2nd Yr (Q2) | ———- | 3.1% |
| 18:00 | | 2 points | Interest Rate Projection – Current (Q2) | ———- | 3.9% |
| 18:00 | | 2 points | Interest Rate Projection – Longer (Q2) | ———- | 3.0% |
| 18:00 | | 3 points | FOMC Economic Projections | ———- | ———- |
| 18:00 | | 3 points | FOMC Statement | ———- | ———- |
| 18:00 | | 3 points | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4.50% | 4.50% |
| 18:00 | | 2 points | ECB’s De Guindos Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 18:30 | | 3 points | FOMC Press Conference | ———- | ———- |
| 20:00 | | 2 points | TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Apr) | ———- | 161.8B |
| 22:45 |  | 2 points | GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.7% | 0.7% |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on June 18, 2025
Eurozone
1. ECB’s Elderson, Lane, and De Guindos Speak — 07:30, 15:00, 18:00 UTC
- Market Impact:
- Any shift in tone after the recent ECB rate cut will influence EUR, bond yields, and risk sentiment.
- Hawkish signals could strengthen EUR; dovish remarks may pressure the euro further.
2. CPI & Core CPI (May) — 09:00 UTC
- Core CPI (YoY): Forecast 2.3% | Previous 2.7%
- CPI (YoY): Forecast 1.9% | Previous 1.9%
- CPI (MoM): Forecast 0.0% | Previous 0.6%
- Market Impact:
- Falling core inflation would strengthen expectations that the ECB will continue its dovish path.
- A hotter-than-expected reading may cause EUR to rebound and yields to rise.
United States
3. Housing Starts & Building Permits (May) — 12:30 UTC
- Building Permits: Forecast 1.430M | Previous 1.422M
- Housing Starts: Forecast 1.360M | Previous 1.361M
- Market Impact:
- Stability in housing supports moderate growth narrative.
- Weak numbers may trigger concerns about housing sector slowdown, possibly supporting Fed cuts.
4. Jobless Claims — 12:30 UTC
- Initial Claims: Previous 248K
- Continuing Claims: Previous 1.956M
- Market Impact:
- Further labor market softening would support Fed rate cuts, while stronger data may limit dovish expectations.
5. Crude Oil Inventories — 14:30 UTC
- Previous: -3.644M
6. Cushing Inventories — 14:30 UTC
- Previous: -0.403M
- Market Impact:
- Large draws may support oil prices, raising inflation concerns and influencing energy sector stocks.
7. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) — 15:30 UTC
- Market Impact:
- Any upward revision keeps growth concerns low, limiting Fed easing expectations.
8. FOMC Interest Rate Decision, Statement, and Projections — 18:00 UTC
- Fed Funds Target Rate: Forecast 4.50% | Previous 4.50%
- Interest Rate Projections (Dot Plot):
- 1st Yr: Previous 3.4%
- 2nd Yr: Previous 3.1%
- Current: Previous 3.9%
- Longer Run: Previous 3.0%
- Market Impact:
- Major global focus. No change expected, but updates to projections and dot plot will shape the 2025 rate path.
- A hawkish dot plot could rally USD and yields, pressure equities.
- Dovish projections may trigger strong rallies in risk assets and bonds.
9. FOMC Press Conference — 18:30 UTC
- Market Impact:
- Powell’s tone will determine short-term USD and risk asset direction after projections.
10. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Apr) — 20:00 UTC
- Previous: 161.8B
- Market Impact:
- Strong foreign demand for U.S. assets supports the USD and bond markets.
New Zealand
11. GDP (QoQ) (Q1) — 22:45 UTC
- Forecast: 0.7% | Previous: 0.7%
- Market Impact:
- A miss may pressure NZD and increase recession fears.
- A strong print could support NZD and improve regional risk sentiment.
Market Impact Analysis
- This is one of the highest-impact days of the month.
- FOMC Decision, Dot Plot, and Powell’s Conference will set global risk tone.
- Eurozone CPI will influence ECB expectations and EUR direction.
- U.S. housing, labor data, and oil inventories may drive short-term USD, bond, and equity moves.
- New Zealand GDP rounds out volatility for Asia-Pacific markets.
Overall Impact Score: 10/10
Key Focus:
All global markets will watch the Fed’s updated rate projections and Powell’s press conference, which will likely dictate near-term moves in USD, equities, Treasuries, gold, and risk assets globally. This day presents maximum volatility risk across virtually all asset classes.
