Upcoming economic events 18 July 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
12:30		2 points	Building Permits (Jun)	1.390M	1.394M
12:30		2 points	Housing Starts (MoM) (Jun)	———-	-9.8%
12:30		2 points	Housing Starts (Jun)	1.290M	1.256M
14:00		2 points	Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jul)	———-	5.0%
14:00		2 points	Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jul)	———-	4.0%
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jul)	55.0	58.1
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)	61.4	60.7
15:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)	2.4%	2.4%
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———-	424
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———-	537
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———-	209.4K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———-	203.0K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———-	31.2K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———-	-140.0K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———-	-74.3K
19:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———-	116.2K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———-	120.6K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 18, 2025

United States – Housing, Consumer Sentiment, Inflation, and Energy

Building Permits (Jun) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: 1.390M | Previous: 1.394M
• Impact: A slight decrease implies stable but cooling demand in the housing sector. This may reflect the impact of interest rates on home construction sentiment.

Housing Starts (MoM & Level) (Jun) – 12:30 UTC

• Forecast: 1.290M | Previous: 1.256M
• Impact: Any rebound after a –9.8% fall in May could ease fears of a slowdown. Weakness, however, might pressure housing-linked equities.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul) – 14:00 UTC

• Forecast: 61.4 | Previous: 60.7
• Consumer Expectations: 55.0 | Previous: 58.1
• Impact: Stable sentiment supports near-term consumption. A decline in expectations may reflect consumer concern about future conditions, pressuring risk appetite.

Michigan Inflation Expectations – 14:00 UTC

• 1-Year: Previous 5.0%
• 5-Year: Previous 4.0%
• Impact: Persistently elevated expectations could influence Fed rhetoric and longer-dated bond yields.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) – 15:30 UTC

• Forecast: 2.4% (same)
• Impact: Reinforces a moderate growth outlook—supportive for equities, but limits Fed easing potential if growth remains robust.

United States – Energy & Speculative Positioning

Baker Hughes Rig Count – 17:00 UTC

• Oil: Previous 424
• Total: Previous 537
• Impact: A lower rig count can signal declining future oil supply, which may support oil prices.

CFTC Speculative Net Positions – 19:30 UTC

• Crude Oil: Previous 209.4K
• Gold: Previous 203.0K
• Nasdaq 100: Previous 31.2K
• S&P 500: Previous –140.0K
• AUD: Previous –74.3K
• JPY: Previous 116.2K
• EUR: Previous 120.6K
• Impact: Positioning data helps gauge market sentiment. High long positions (e.g., in gold, oil) may suggest overextension or bullish consensus, raising risk of reversal.

Market Impact Analysis

The day centers on U.S. housing, consumer sentiment, and inflation expectations, all of which offer directional cues for the USD, yields, and equities. Stable Michigan sentiment paired with firm GDPNow estimates supports a neutral-to-positive risk tone, though any surprises in inflation expectations could shift bond yields sharply.

Energy and CFTC data will influence commodity-linked assets and broader speculative appetite.

Overall Impact Score: 7/10

Key Watchpoints:

• Whether housing activity rebounds or continues to cool.
• Consumer inflation expectations, especially the 5-year outlook, for Fed policy implications.
• Speculative net positions—if extremes are reached, risk reversals may follow.

Let me know if you’d like scenario analysis for these releases.