Upcoming economic events 18 July 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	Employment Change (Jun)	19.9K	39.7K
01:30		2 points	Full Employment Change (Jun)	———	41.7K
01:30		2 points	Unemployment Rate (Jun)	4.1%	4.0%
10:00		2 points	Eurogroup Meetings	———	———
12:15		2 points	Deposit Facility Rate (Jul)	3.75%	3.75%
12:15		2 points	ECB Marginal Lending Facility	———	4.50%
12:15		2 points	ECB Monetary Policy Statement	———	———
12:15		2 points	ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul)	4.25%	4.25%
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,860K	1,852K
12:30		2 points	Initial Jobless Claims	229K	222K
12:30		2 points	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)	2.7	1.3
12:30		2 points	Philly Fed Employment (Jul)	———	-2.5
12:45		2 points	ECB Press Conference	———	———
14:00		2 points	US Leading Index (MoM) (Jun)	-0.3%	-0.5%
14:15		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———	———
17:00		2 points	10-Year TIPS Auction	———	2.184%
20:00		2 points	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (May)	98.4B	123.1B
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———	7,224B
22:05		2 points	FOMC Member Daly Speaks	———	———
22:45		2 points	CPI (QoQ)	0.6%	0.6%
22:45		2 points	CPI (YoY)	3.5%	4.0%
23:30		2 points	National Core CPI (YoY) (Jun)	2.7%	2.5%
23:30		2 points	National CPI (MoM)	———	0.2%
23:45		2 points	FOMC Member Bowman Speaks	———	———

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 18, 2024

1. Australia Employment Change (Jun): Monthly change in employment. Forecast: 19.9K, Previous: 39.7K.
2. Australia Full Employment Change (Jun): Change in full-time employment. Previous: 41.7K.
3. Australia Unemployment Rate (Jun): Percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. Forecast: 4.1%, Previous: 4.0%.
4. Eurogroup Meetings: Discussions by Eurozone finance ministers on economic policies.
5. Eurozone Deposit Facility Rate (Jul): Interest rate on deposits held at the ECB. Forecast: 3.75%, Previous: 3.75%.
6. ECB Marginal Lending Facility: Interest rate at which banks can borrow from the ECB overnight. Previous: 4.50%.
7. ECB Monetary Policy Statement: Statement on ECB’s monetary policy.
8. ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jul): ECB’s decision on the benchmark interest rate. Forecast: 4.25%, Previous: 4.25%.
9. US Continuing Jobless Claims: Number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits. Forecast: 1,860K, Previous: 1,852K.
10. US Initial Jobless Claims: Number of new unemployment claims. Forecast: 229K, Previous: 222K.
11. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul): Business conditions in the Philadelphia manufacturing sector. Forecast: 2.7, Previous: 1.3.
12. Philly Fed Employment (Jul): Employment conditions in the Philadelphia manufacturing sector. Previous: -2.5.
13. ECB Press Conference: Insights into ECB’s economic outlook and monetary policy.
14. US Leading Index (MoM) (Jun): Composite index of economic indicators. Forecast: -0.3%, Previous: -0.5%.
15. ECB President Lagarde Speaks: Comments on the ECB’s economic outlook and policy.
16. US 10-Year TIPS Auction: Investor demand for 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities. Previous: 2.184%.
17. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (May): Net transactions in long-term securities. Previous: 123.1B.
18. Fed’s Balance Sheet: Weekly update on the Federal Reserve’s assets and liabilities. Previous: 7,224B.
19. FOMC Member Daly Speaks: Insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
20. New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q2): Quarterly change in consumer prices. Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: 0.6%.
21. New Zealand CPI (YoY) (Q2): Annual change in consumer prices. Forecast: 3.5%, Previous: 4.0%.
22. Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Jun): Annual change in the core consumer price index. Forecast: 2.7%, Previous: 2.5%.
23. Japan National CPI (MoM) (Jun): Monthly change in consumer prices. Previous: 0.2%.
24. FOMC Member Bowman Speaks: Comments on the Federal Reserve’s economic outlook and policy.

Market Impact Analysis

• Australia Employment Data: Stable or rising employment supports AUD; significant changes impact market confidence.
• Eurozone Deposit Facility and Interest Rate Decision: Stable rates maintain EUR stability; unexpected changes influence EUR and European markets.
• US Jobless Claims: Lower claims indicate a strong labor market, supporting USD; higher claims suggest economic issues.
• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: Improvement supports economic confidence and USD; declines indicate manufacturing weakness.
• US Leading Index: Reflects overall economic trends; improvements support market confidence, declines indicate potential economic slowdown.
• ECB and Fed Speeches: Comments provide insights into future policy; dovish tones reassure markets, hawkish tones increase volatility.
• New Zealand CPI: Stable or rising inflation supports NZD; declines indicate economic cooling.
• Japan CPI: Higher inflation indicates economic strength, supporting JPY; lower figures suggest economic slowing.

Overall Impact

• Volatility: High, with significant potential reactions in currency, equity, and bond markets.
• Impact Score: 7/10, indicating a high potential for market movements.