Upcoming economic events 18 December 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
09:00		2 points	ECB’s Lane Speaks	———-	———-
10:00		2 points	Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)	2.7%	2.7%
10:00		2 points	CPI (MoM) (Nov)	-0.3%	0.3%
10:00		3 points	CPI (YoY) (Nov)	2.3%	2.0%
13:30		2 points	Building Permits (Nov)	1.430M	1.419M
13:30		2 points	Current Account (Q3)	-286.0B	-266.8B
13:30		2 points	Housing Starts (Nov)	1.350M	1.311M
13:30		2 points	Housing Starts (MoM) (Nov)	———-	-3.1%
15:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	3.1%	3.1%
15:30		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	-1.600M	-1.425M
15:30		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———-	-1.298M
19:00		2 points	Interest Rate Projection – 1st Yr (Q4)	———-	3.4%
19:00		2 points	Interest Rate Projection – 2nd Yr (Q4)	———-	2.9%
19:00		2 points	Interest Rate Projection – 3rd Yr (Q2)	———-	2.9%
19:00		2 points	Interest Rate Projection – Current (Q4)	———-	4.4%
19:00		2 points	Interest Rate Projection – Longer (Q4)	———-	2.9%
19:00		3 points	FOMC Economic Projections	———-	———-
19:00		3 points	FOMC Statement	———-	———-
19:00		3 points	Fed Interest Rate Decision	4.50%	4.75%
19:30		3 points	FOMC Press Conference	———-	———-
21:45		2 points	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	-0.2%	-0.2%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 18, 2024

1. Eurozone Inflation Data & ECB Commentary (09:00–10:00 UTC):
   • ECB’s Lane Speaks (09:00): Insights into inflation and monetary policy outlook could impact EUR sentiment.
   • Core CPI (YoY) (Nov): Forecast: 2.7%, Previous: 2.7%.
   • CPI (YoY) (Nov): Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: 2.0%.
   • CPI (MoM) (Nov): Forecast: -0.3%, Previous: 0.3%.
     A rise in inflation (CPI) would support the EUR by reinforcing ECB’s cautious stance on rate cuts. Lower inflation could pressure the EUR.
2. US Economic Data (13:30–15:30 UTC):
   • Building Permits (Nov): Forecast: 1.430M, Previous: 1.419M.
   • Housing Starts (Nov): Forecast: 1.350M, Previous: 1.311M.
   • Current Account (Q3): Forecast: -286.0B, Previous: -266.8B.
     Strength in housing and permits would reflect a resilient housing market, supporting the USD. A widening current account deficit could slightly weigh on the USD.
3. US Crude Oil Inventories (15:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: -1.600M, Previous: -1.425M.
   • Cushing Crude Oil Inventories: Previous: -1.298M.
     A larger-than-expected drawdown signals stronger demand, supporting oil prices and commodity-linked currencies (e.g., CAD). Builds would pressure oil prices.
4. US Federal Reserve Key Events (19:00–19:30 UTC):
   • Fed Interest Rate Decision: Forecast: 4.50%, Previous: 4.75%.
   • FOMC Economic Projections: Includes GDP growth, inflation, and rate forecasts.
   • FOMC Statement & Press Conference (19:30): Commentary from Fed Chair Powell will be critical for USD outlook.
     A hawkish stance, or signals of higher-for-longer rates, would support the USD. Dovish remarks or hints of rate cuts in 2024 could weaken the currency.
5. New Zealand GDP (QoQ) (Q3) (21:45 UTC):
   • Forecast: -0.2%, Previous: -0.2%.
     Negative growth would indicate a technical recession, weighing on the NZD. Better-than-expected data could provide some support to the currency.

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Market Impact Analysis

• Eurozone CPI & ECB Commentary:
  Higher inflation would reinforce ECB hawkishness, supporting the EUR. Lower readings could weigh on the currency.
• US Housing Data & Current Account:
  Strong housing data supports the USD, indicating resilience in the real estate sector. A widening current account deficit could offset gains slightly.
• US FOMC Events:
  • Hawkish Scenario: Higher interest rate projections or a cautious Fed tone would strengthen the USD.
  • Dovish Scenario: Signals of rate cuts or lower economic projections would weaken the USD and lift risk assets.
• Crude Oil Inventories:
  Drawdowns would boost oil prices, supporting CAD and other commodity currencies. Builds would pressure oil-linked assets.
• New Zealand GDP:
  Negative GDP growth would weigh on the NZD. A surprise expansion would provide some support.

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Overall Impact

Volatility: High, driven by critical US FOMC decisions, Eurozone inflation data, and New Zealand GDP.

Impact Score: 9/10, with focus on the US Fed Rate Decision, FOMC projections, and Eurozone inflation as key drivers for USD, EUR, and NZD movements.