Upcoming economic events 17 September 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
04:30		2 points	Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) (Jul)	0.8%	-1.3%
09:00		2 points	ECB McCaul Speaks	———	———
09:00		2 points	ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep)	16.4	17.9
12:30		2 points	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)	0.2%	0.4%
12:30		2 points	Retail Control (MoM) (Aug)	———	0.3%
12:30		3 points	Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)	-0.2%	1.0%
13:00		2 points	ECB’s Elderson Speaks	———	———
13:15		2 points	Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug)	———	-0.18%
13:15		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)	0.1%	-0.6%
14:00		2 points	Business Inventories (MoM) (Jul)	0.4%	0.3%
14:00		2 points	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jul)	0.5%	0.5%
16:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)	2.5%	2.5%
17:00		2 points	20-Year Bond Auction	———	4.160%
20:30		2 points	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	———	-2.790M
21:00		2 points	Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Q3)	———	82.2
22:45		2 points	Current Account (QoQ) (Q2)	-3.95B	-4.36B
22:45		2 points	Current Account (YoY) (Q2)	———	-27.64B
23:50		2 points	Adjusted Trade Balance	-0.97T	-0.76T
23:50		2 points	Exports (YoY) (Aug)	———	10.2%
23:50		2 points	Trade Balance (Aug)	———	-628.7B

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on September 17, 2024

1. Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) (Jul) (04:30 UTC): Measures monthly change in output in Japan’s service industries. Forecast: +0.8%, Previous: -1.3%.
2. ECB McCaul Speaks (09:00 UTC): Remarks from ECB Supervisory Board Member Ed Sibley McCaul, potentially offering insights into financial supervision and economic outlook.
3. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Sep) (09:00 UTC): Measures investor sentiment in the Eurozone. Forecast: 16.4, Previous: 17.9.
4. US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) (12:30 UTC): Monthly change in retail sales excluding automobiles. Forecast: +0.2%, Previous: +0.4%.
5. US Retail Control (MoM) (Aug) (12:30 UTC): Retail sales data used to calculate GDP. Previous: +0.3%.
6. US Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug) (12:30 UTC): Monthly change in overall retail sales. Forecast: -0.2%, Previous: +1.0%.
7. ECB’s Elderson Speaks (13:00 UTC): Remarks from ECB Executive Board Member Frank Elderson, providing potential insights into ECB policy.
8. US Industrial Production (YoY) (Aug) (13:15 UTC): Annual change in US industrial output. Previous: -0.18%.
9. US Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) (13:15 UTC): Monthly change in US industrial output. Forecast: +0.1%, Previous: -0.6%.
10. US Business Inventories (MoM) (Jul) (14:00 UTC): Monthly change in US business inventories. Forecast: +0.4%, Previous: +0.3%.
11. US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jul) (14:00 UTC): Monthly change in retail inventories excluding automobiles. Previous: +0.5%.
12. US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) (16:00 UTC): Real-time estimate of US GDP growth for the third quarter. Previous: +2.5%.
13. US 20-Year Bond Auction (17:00 UTC): Auction of 20-year US Treasury bonds. Previous Yield: 4.160%.
14. US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (20:30 UTC): Weekly change in US crude oil inventories. Previous: -2.790M.
15. New Zealand Westpac Consumer Sentiment (Q3) (21:00 UTC): Measures consumer confidence in New Zealand. Previous: 82.2.
16. New Zealand Current Account (QoQ) (Q2) (22:45 UTC): Measures the balance of trade in goods, services, and transfers. Forecast: -3.95B, Previous: -4.36B.
17. New Zealand Current Account (YoY) (Q2) (22:45 UTC): Annual change in New Zealand’s current account balance. Previous: -27.64B.
18. Japan Adjusted Trade Balance (23:50 UTC): Trade balance adjusted for seasonal variations. Forecast: -0.97T, Previous: -0.76T.
19. Japan Exports (YoY) (Aug) (23:50 UTC): Annual change in Japanese exports. Previous: +10.2%.
20. Japan Trade Balance (Aug) (23:50 UTC): Measures the difference between exports and imports. Previous: -628.7B.

Market Impact Analysis

• Japan Tertiary Industry Activity & Trade Data: Improvement in service sector activity supports JPY. Weak trade balance or lower export growth could weigh on JPY and reflect slowing global demand.
• ECB Speeches (McCaul, Elderson): Insights from ECB officials may influence EUR, particularly if monetary policy or economic concerns are addressed.
• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment: Lower sentiment may weaken EUR by reflecting investor concerns about the region’s economic outlook. Positive sentiment supports EUR.
• US Retail Sales & Industrial Production: Lower retail sales or weak industrial production may signal slower economic growth, potentially impacting USD and equity markets. Positive data would indicate economic resilience and support USD.
• US Crude Oil Stocks: A decline in oil inventories generally supports higher oil prices, which could influence energy markets and commodity-linked currencies like CAD and AUD.
• New Zealand Current Account & Consumer Sentiment: A widening current account deficit may weaken NZD, while stronger consumer sentiment could support the currency.

Overall Impact

• Volatility: Moderate to high, with particular focus on US retail sales, industrial production, and ECB comments influencing EUR and USD.
• Impact Score: 7/10, indicating high potential for market movements.