Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 00:30 |  | 2 points | Employment Change (Sep) | 25.2K | 47.5K |
| 00:30 | | 2 points | Full Employment Change (Sep) | ——— | -3.1K |
| 00:30 | | 2 points | Unemployment Rate (Sep) | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| 08:15 |  | 2 points | ECB McCaul Speaks | ——— | ——— |
| 09:00 | | 2 points | Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 2.7% | 2.8% |
| 09:00 | | 2 points | CPI (MoM) (Sep) | -0.1% | 0.1% |
| 09:00 | | 3 points | CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| 09:00 | | 2 points | Trade Balance (Aug) | 17.8B | 21.2B |
| 09:45 | | 2 points | ECB McCaul Speaks | ——— | ——— |
| 10:00 | | 2 points | EU Leaders Summit | ——— | ——— |
| 12:15 | | 3 points | Deposit Facility Rate (Oct) | 3.25% | 3.50% |
| 12:15 | | 2 points | ECB Marginal Lending Facility | ——— | 3.90% |
| 12:15 | | 2 points | ECB Monetary Policy Statement | ——— | ——— |
| 12:15 | | 3 points | ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct) | 3.40% | 3.65% |
| 12:30 |  | 2 points | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1,870K | 1,861K |
| 12:30 | | 3 points | Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 12:30 | | 3 points | Initial Jobless Claims | 241K | 258K |
| 12:30 | | 3 points | Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) | 4.2 | 1.7 |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Philly Fed Employment (Oct) | ——— | 10.7 |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Retail Control (MoM) (Sep) | ——— | 0.3% |
| 12:30 | | 3 points | Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 12:45 | | 3 points | ECB Press Conference | ——— | ——— |
| 13:15 | | 2 points | Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep) | ——— | 0.04% |
| 13:15 | | 2 points | Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) | -0.1% | 0.8% |
| 14:00 | | 2 points | Business Inventories (MoM) (Aug) | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| 14:00 | | 2 points | Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Aug) | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| 14:15 | | 2 points | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | ——— | ——— |
| 15:00 | | 3 points | Crude Oil Inventories | 1.800M | 5.810M |
| 15:00 | | 2 points | Cushing Crude Oil Inventories | ——— | 1.247M |
| 16:00 | | 2 points | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| 20:00 | | 2 points | TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Aug) | ——— | 135.4B |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | Fed’s Balance Sheet | ——— | 7,047B |
| 23:30 |  | 2 points | National Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) | 2.3% | 2.8% |
| 23:30 | | 2 points | National CPI (MoM) | ——— | 0.5% |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 17, 2024
- Australia Employment Change (Sep) (00:30 UTC):
Measures the change in the number of employed people. Forecast: 25.2K, Previous: 47.5K. A higher number indicates a strong labor market. - Australia Full Employment Change (Sep) (00:30 UTC):
Tracks the change in full-time employment. Previous: -3.1K. Positive growth would suggest an improving labor market. - Australia Unemployment Rate (Sep) (00:30 UTC):
Measures the percentage of unemployed people in the workforce. Forecast: 4.2%, Previous: 4.2%. A steady rate signals labor market stability. - ECB McCaul Speaks (08:15 & 09:45 UTC):
Remarks from ECB Supervisory Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo McCaul could offer insights into financial stability and monetary policy in the Eurozone. - Eurozone Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) (09:00 UTC):
Measures underlying inflation, excluding food and energy. Forecast: 2.7%, Previous: 2.8%. Lower core inflation would reduce pressure on the ECB to raise rates. - Eurozone CPI (MoM) (Sep) (09:00 UTC):
Monthly change in consumer prices. Forecast: -0.1%, Previous: 0.1%. A negative reading suggests price pressures are easing. - Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Sep) (09:00 UTC):
Year-on-year change in consumer prices. Forecast: 1.8%, Previous: 2.2%. A decline in headline inflation could signal an easing of inflationary pressures. - Eurozone Trade Balance (Aug) (09:00 UTC):
The difference between exports and imports. Forecast: €17.8B, Previous: €21.2B. A shrinking surplus may reflect weaker export performance. - EU Leaders Summit (10:00 UTC):
A meeting of European Union leaders to discuss political and economic matters. Important policy announcements could affect the EUR. - ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct) (12:15 UTC):
Expected to cut rates. Forecast: 3.40%, Previous: 3.65%. A rate cut would signal easing monetary policy, potentially weakening the EUR. - US Continuing Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC):
Forecast: 1,870K, Previous: 1,861K. Rising claims suggest a weakening labor market. - US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC):
Forecast: 241K, Previous: 258K. Lower claims would signal labor market resilience. - US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
Tracks retail sales excluding autos. Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.1%. Stable sales indicate steady consumer demand. - US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Oct) (12:30 UTC):
Measures manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region. Forecast: 4.2, Previous: 1.7. Higher numbers suggest growth in the sector. - US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
Measures overall retail sales. Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.1%. Growth signals strong consumer spending. - ECB Press Conference (12:45 UTC):
ECB President Christine Lagarde will address monetary policy following the rate decision, which could provide further insights into the ECB’s economic outlook. - US Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) (13:15 UTC):
Measures changes in industrial output. Forecast: -0.1%, Previous: 0.8%. A decline indicates slowing industrial activity. - US Business Inventories (MoM) (Aug) (14:00 UTC):
Tracks the value of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.4%. - US Crude Oil Inventories (15:00 UTC):
Measures weekly changes in crude oil stockpiles. Forecast: 1.800M, Previous: 5.810M. Lower inventories could support oil prices. - Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) (16:00 UTC):
A real-time estimate of US GDP growth. Previous: 3.2%. No change is expected. - Japan National Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) (23:30 UTC):
Measures inflation excluding food. Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: 2.8%. A decline in core inflation would suggest easing price pressures.
Market Impact Analysis
- Australia Employment & Unemployment Data:
Strong employment growth would support the AUD, while higher unemployment or a weaker-than-expected employment change could weigh on the currency. - ECB Interest Rate Decision & CPI Data:
A rate cut, coupled with easing inflation, could weaken the EUR, as it signals a shift toward more accommodative monetary policy. Hawkish remarks during the press conference would provide support to the EUR. - US Jobless Claims & Retail Sales:
Lower-than-expected jobless claims and stronger retail sales would strengthen the USD, signaling economic resilience. Weak data could soften the USD by indicating economic slowing. - US Crude Oil Inventories:
A large drawdown in inventories would suggest strong demand, supporting oil prices, while a build would indicate weaker demand, putting downward pressure on prices. - Japan CPI Data:
Slower inflation in Japan would reduce pressure on the BoJ to tighten policy, which could weigh on the JPY.
Overall Impact
Volatility:
High, driven by major central bank decisions (ECB), US labor market and retail sales data, and Japanese inflation figures. Oil market data and industrial production reports may also contribute to potential market swings.
Impact Score: 8/10, with significant focus on the ECB’s interest rate decision, US jobless claims and retail sales, and Japan’s inflation data shaping global economic sentiment.
