Jeremy Oles

Published On: 16/07/2025
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Technical Analysis for AAPL by TradingView
Technical Analysis for AAPL by TradingView
Technical Analysis for AAPL by TradingView
By Published On: 16/07/2025
Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)StateImportanceEventForecastPrevious
01:30🇦🇺2 pointsEmployment Change (Jun)21.0K-2.5K
01:30🇦🇺2 pointsFull Employment Change (Jun)———-38.7K
01:30🇦🇺2 pointsUnemployment Rate (Jun)4.1%4.1%
09:00🇪🇺2 pointsCore CPI (YoY) (Jun)2.3%2.3%
09:00🇪🇺2 pointsCPI (MoM) (Jun)0.3%0.0%
09:00🇪🇺3 pointsCPI (YoY) (Jun)2.0%1.9%
12:30🇺🇸2 pointsContinuing Jobless Claims1,970K1,965K
12:30🇺🇸3 pointsCore Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)0.3%-0.3%
12:30🇺🇸2 pointsExport Price Index (MoM) (Jun)0.0%-0.9%
12:30🇺🇸2 pointsImport Price Index (MoM) (Jun)0.3%0.0%
12:30🇺🇸3 pointsInitial Jobless Claims233K227K
12:30🇺🇸3 pointsPhiladelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul)-1.2-4.0
12:30🇺🇸2 pointsPhilly Fed Employment (Jul)———--9.8
12:30🇺🇸2 pointsRetail Control (MoM) (Jun)0.3%0.4%
12:30🇺🇸3 pointsRetail Sales (MoM) (Jun)0.1%-0.9%
14:00🇺🇸2 pointsBusiness Inventories (MoM) (May)0.0%0.0%
14:00🇺🇸2 pointsRetail Inventories Ex Auto (May)0.2%0.2%
16:45🇺🇸2 pointsFOMC Member Daly Speaks———-———-
17:00🇺🇸2 pointsAtlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)2.6%2.6%
20:00🇺🇸2 pointsTIC Net Long-Term Transactions (May)———--7.8B
22:30🇺🇸2 pointsFed Waller Speaks———-———-
23:30🇯🇵2 pointsNational Core CPI (YoY) (Jun)3.4%3.7%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 17, 2025

Asia – Australia & Japan

Australia – Employment Change (Jun) – 01:30 UTC

  • Expected: +21.0K | Previous: –2.5K
  • Impact: A turnaround to positive job growth supports AUD, reduces pressure on RBA to cut.

Australia – Full Employment Change (Jun) – 01:30 UTC

  • Previous: +38.7K
  • Impact: Provides insight into total job creation; strong numbers may reinforce confidence in the labor market.

Australia – Unemployment Rate (Jun) – 01:30 UTC

  • Expected: 4.1% (same)
  • Impact: A stable rate with rising jobs could support AUD; any weakness may raise policy concerns.

Japan – National Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) – 23:30 UTC

  • Expected: 3.4% | Previous: 3.7%
  • Impact: Moderating inflation could ease BoJ tightening concerns and pressure JPY, but still above target levels.

Europe – Eurozone Inflation

Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) – 09:00 UTC

  • Expected: 2.3% (same)

CPI MoM (Jun) – 09:00 UTC

  • Expected: +0.3% | Previous: 0.0%

CPI YoY (Jun) – 09:00 UTC

  • Expected: 2.0% | Previous: 1.9%

Impact: A rise in monthly CPI and the YoY headline rate may signal persistent inflationary pressures. This could prompt a cautious stance from the ECB, potentially supporting EUR and yields.

United States – Labor, Retail & Regional Fed Data

Continuing Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC

  • Expected: 1,970K (previous 1,965K)
    Initial Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC
  • Expected: 233K (previous 227K)

Impact: Slightly higher claims could indicate labor market softening, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed might pause or ease later in the year. Moves in USD and bond yields may follow.

Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) – 12:30 UTC

  • Expected: +0.3% | Previous: –0.3%
    Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) – 12:30 UTC
  • Expected: +0.1% | Previous: –0.9%

Impact: A rebound in consumer spending supports growth narratives, which could boost consumer stocks and influence the Fed’s rate outlook.

Export Price Index (MoM) (Jun) – 12:30 UTC

  • Expected: 0.0% | Previous: –0.9%
    Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun) – 12:30 UTC
  • Expected: +0.3% | Previous: 0.0%

Impact: Stable export prices matched with rising import prices may signal building cost pressure—relevant for inflation monitoring.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jul) – 12:30 UTC

  • Expected: –1.2 | Previous: –4.0
    Philly Fed Employment (Jul) – 12:30 UTC
  • Previous: –9.8

Impact: A smaller contraction in regional manufacturing and less negative employment numbers support the narrative of softening, but still stable activity. Mixed data may keep volatility muted.

United States – Inventory & Fed Commentary

Business Inventories (MoM, May) – 14:00 UTC

  • Expected: +0.0% (same)
    Retail Inventories Ex-Auto (May) – 14:00 UTC
  • Expected: +0.2% (same)

Impact: Inventory stability suggests balanced supply chains; sustained stagnation could signal cautious business stance on production.

FOMC Member Daly Speaks – 16:45 UTC
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) – 17:00 UTC

  • Expected: 2.6% (same)
    TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (May) – 20:00 UTC minus $7.8B
    Fed Governor Waller Speaks – 22:30 UTC

Impact: Speeches from Daly and Waller provide nuanced Fed insights—especially post-CPI data. The GDPNow estimate reinforces growth trends. Negative TIC flows reflect weaker foreign demand for U.S. assets, weighing on the USD and bond yields.

Market Impact Analysis

  • Inflation data (Euro CPI, Japan core CPI) shape global central bank expectations—ECB and BoJ focus ahead.
  • U.S. retail and labor data are central to the near-term Fed narrative and market tone in USD and Treasuries.
  • Regional Fed surveys and speeches fill in the context for economic softness, balancing inflation vs growth concerns.
  • External flows and inventory data provide nuance to investor demand and supply conditions.

Overall Impact Score: 8/10

Key Watchpoints:

  • Euro CPI for insights into ECB policy trajectory.
  • U.S. retail rebound may push Treasury yield outlook higher if sustained.
  • Fed commentary post-data will clarify central bank leanings.
  • Japan’s core CPI moderation—a key signal for BoJ behavior and JPY.
  • Foreign investment flows (TIC data) could shift USD and yield dynamics.
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