Upcoming economic events 17 January 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
02:00		2 points	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Dec)	3.3%	3.3%
02:00		2 points	GDP (QoQ) (Q4)	1.6%	0.9%
02:00		3 points	GDP (YoY) (Q4)	5.0%	4.6%
02:00		2 points	Chinese GDP YTD (YoY) (Q4)	———-	4.8%
02:00		2 points	Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)	5.4%	5.4%
02:00		2 points	Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Dec)	———-	5.8%
02:00		2 points	Chinese Unemployment Rate (Dec)	5.0%	5.0%
02:00		2 points	NBS Press Conference	———-	———-
10:00		2 points	Core CPI (YoY) (Dec)	2.7%	2.7%
10:00		2 points	CPI (MoM) (Dec)	0.4%	-0.3%
10:00		3 points	CPI (YoY) (Dec)	2.4%	2.2%
13:30		2 points	Building Permits (Dec)	1.460M	1.493M
13:30		2 points	Housing Starts (Dec)	1.330M	1.289M
13:30		2 points	Housing Starts (MoM) (Dec)	———-	-1.8%
14:15		2 points	Industrial Production (YoY) (Dec)	———-	-0.90%
14:15		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)	0.3%	-0.1%
17:15		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	———-	———-
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———-	480
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———-	584
20:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———-	279.6K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———-	254.9K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———-	18.8K
20:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———-	-62.2K
20:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———-	-73.4K
20:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———-	-20.2K
20:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———-	-64.1K
21:00		2 points	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Nov)	159.9B	152.3B

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on January 17, 2025

China

1. Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (02:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 3.3%, Previous: 3.3%.
     Measures investment activity in infrastructure, real estate, and industrial sectors.
2. GDP (QoQ) (Q4) (02:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 1.6%, Previous: 0.9%.
     A significant jump may indicate accelerating recovery in the Chinese economy.
3. GDP (YoY) (Q4) (02:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 5.0%, Previous: 4.6%.
     Stronger growth signals resilience despite global challenges.
4. Industrial Production (YoY) (02:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 5.4%, Previous: 5.4%.
5. Chinese Unemployment Rate (02:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 5.0%, Previous: 5.0%.

European Union

6. Core CPI (YoY) (10:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 2.7%, Previous: 2.7%.
7. CPI (YoY) (10:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: 2.4%, Previous: 2.2%.
     A continued rise may keep pressure on the ECB to maintain restrictive monetary policy.

United States

8. Building Permits (13:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 1.460M, Previous: 1.493M.
9. Housing Starts (13:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 1.330M, Previous: 1.289M.
     Housing metrics are vital indicators of economic activity in the construction sector.
10. Industrial Production (MoM) (14:15 UTC):
    • Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: -0.1%.
11. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) (17:15 UTC):
    Updated Q4 GDP growth estimate based on the latest data.

Market Reports

12. U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (18:00 UTC):
    A measure of drilling activity; changes affect oil supply forecasts and prices.
13. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (20:30 UTC):
    Weekly speculative positioning data for crude oil, gold, forex, and equity indices.
14. TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (21:00 UTC):
    • Forecast: $159.9B, Previous: $152.3B.
      Tracks foreign investments in U.S. securities and can indicate capital inflows or outflows.

Market Impact Analysis

CNY:

• Stronger-than-expected Chinese GDP and industrial production data may support CNY and broader risk sentiment.

EUR:

• Elevated CPI readings could reinforce ECB hawkishness, bolstering the EUR.

USD:

• Housing and industrial production data are pivotal. Positive surprises may strengthen the USD, while weaker figures could suggest softening momentum.

Volatility & Impact Score

• Volatility: Medium to High (Chinese GDP, EU CPI, and U.S. housing data).
• Impact Score: 7/10 – Significant for market trends across forex, commodities, and equities.