Upcoming economic events 16 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	BoJ Board Member Adachi Speaks	———	———
12:30		2 points	Export Price Index (MoM) (Sep)	-0.4%	-0.7%
12:30		2 points	Import Price Index (MoM) (Sep)	-0.3%	-0.3%
18:40		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———	———
20:30		2 points	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	———	10.900M
23:50		2 points	Adjusted Trade Balance	-0.49T	-0.60T
23:50		2 points	Exports (YoY) (Sep)	0.5%	5.6%
23:50		2 points	Trade Balance (Sep)	-237.6B	-695.3B

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 16, 2024

1. BoJ Board Member Adachi Speaks (01:30 UTC):
   Remarks from Bank of Japan Board Member Seiji Adachi may offer insights into the central bank’s monetary policy stance and outlook on inflation and economic growth in Japan.
2. US Export Price Index (MoM) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Measures the change in prices for goods exported by the US. Forecast: -0.4%, Previous: -0.7%. A smaller decline in export prices would indicate improved pricing power for US exporters.
3. US Import Price Index (MoM) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Tracks the monthly change in prices for goods imported into the US. Forecast: -0.3%, Previous: -0.3%. A stable or declining import price index reduces inflationary pressures.
4. ECB President Lagarde Speaks (18:40 UTC):
   European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde’s speech could provide clues about the ECB’s future monetary policy, particularly around inflation and interest rates in the Eurozone.
5. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (20:30 UTC):
   Reports weekly changes in US crude oil inventories. Previous: 10.900M barrels. A large build in inventories could signal weaker demand, potentially lowering oil prices.
6. Japan Adjusted Trade Balance (Sep) (23:50 UTC):
   The seasonally adjusted difference between Japan’s exports and imports. Forecast: -0.49T, Previous: -0.60T. A narrower deficit would signal improved trade conditions.
7. Japan Exports (YoY) (Sep) (23:50 UTC):
   Year-on-year change in the value of goods exported from Japan. Forecast: 0.5%, Previous: 5.6%. A slower growth rate suggests weakening demand for Japanese exports.
8. Japan Trade Balance (Sep) (23:50 UTC):
   The non-adjusted difference between Japan’s exports and imports. Forecast: -237.6B, Previous: -695.3B. A smaller trade deficit signals improved trade performance.

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Market Impact Analysis

• BoJ Speech (Adachi):
  Any dovish or hawkish tone from BoJ Board Member Adachi could influence expectations for future monetary policy, potentially impacting the JPY.
• US Export and Import Price Indices:
  A smaller decline in export prices would suggest improving conditions for US exports, supporting the USD. Stable or declining import prices would ease inflationary concerns, which could weaken the USD as pressure on the Fed to tighten monetary policy may lessen.
• ECB Lagarde Speech:
  Hawkish remarks from President Lagarde would support the EUR by signaling the ECB’s commitment to addressing inflation. Dovish commentary would likely weaken the EUR, suggesting caution over economic growth.
• API Weekly Crude Oil Stock:
  A large build in crude oil inventories would suggest lower demand, which could put downward pressure on oil prices. A decline in inventories would indicate stronger demand, potentially boosting prices.
• Japan Trade Data (Adjusted Trade Balance, Exports, Trade Balance):
  A smaller trade deficit and improved export figures would support the JPY, signaling stronger trade performance. Weaker export growth would weigh on the currency, suggesting reduced external demand.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with key attention on speeches from central bank officials (BoJ and ECB) and trade data from Japan. US export and import price data and the API crude oil stock report will also contribute to potential market shifts.

Impact Score: 6/10, driven by central bank speeches and Japan’s trade data, which will shape expectations around monetary policy and economic performance. Oil market dynamics may also play a role, depending on the API stock report.