Upcoming economic events 16 May 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
02:00		2 points	NBS Press Conference	———-	———-
03:00		2 points	Inflation Expectations (QoQ)	———-	2.1%
04:00		2 points	BoJ Board Member Nakamura Speaks	———-	———-
04:30		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)	-1.1%	-1.1%
09:00		2 points	Trade Balance (Mar)	17.5B	24.0B
12:30		2 points	Building Permits (Apr)	1.450M	1.467M
12:30		2 points	Export Price Index (MoM) (Apr)	———-	0.0%
12:30		2 points	Housing Starts (MoM) (Apr)	———-	-11.4%
12:30		2 points	Housing Starts (Apr)	1.370M	1.324M
12:30		2 points	Import Price Index (MoM) (Apr)	-0.4%	-0.1%
14:00		2 points	Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (May)	———-	6.5%
14:00		2 points	Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (May)	———-	4.4%
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Expectations (May)	———-	47.3
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (May)	53.1	52.2
15:00		2 points	ECB’s Lane Speaks	———-	———-
15:30		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)	———-	———-
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———-	474
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———-	578
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———-	175.4K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———-	162.5K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———-	32.8K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———-	-76.4K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———-	-48.4K
19:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———-	176.9K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———-	75.7K
20:00		2 points	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Mar)	44.2B	112.0B

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on May 16, 2025

China (🇨🇳)

1. NBS Press Conference (02:00 UTC)
   • Market Impact:
     • Comments on economic policy, inflation, or growth targets could affect risk sentiment and commodity prices.
2. Inflation Expectations (QoQ) (03:00 UTC)
   • Previous: 2.1%
   • Market Impact:
     • Rising expectations may influence RBNZ’s interest rate outlook and affect the NZD.

Japan (🇯🇵)

3. BoJ Board Member Nakamura Speaks (04:00 UTC)
   • Market Impact:
     • Any hint on rate policy or inflation outlook could influence the JPY and bond yields.
4. Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar) (04:30 UTC)
   • Forecast & Previous: -1.1%
   • Market Impact:
     • Continued contraction could suggest economic slowdown, potentially pressuring the JPY.

Eurozone (🇪🇺)

5. Trade Balance (Mar) (09:00 UTC)
   • Forecast: 17.5B | Previous: 24.0B
   • Market Impact:
     • A narrowing surplus might weigh on the EUR and indicate slower external demand.
6. ECB’s Lane Speaks (15:00 UTC)
   • Market Impact:
     • May offer clues on ECB’s policy stance, especially regarding inflation trends or rate cuts.

United States (🇺🇸)

7. Building Permits (Apr) (12:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 1.450M | Previous: 1.467M
   • Market Impact:
     • A leading indicator for housing activity; weaker data may imply cooling economic momentum.
8. Export Price Index (MoM) (Apr) (12:30 UTC)
   • Previous: 0.0%
   • Market Impact:
     • Changes can influence inflation and trade balance dynamics.
9. Housing Starts (MoM) & (Apr) (12:30 UTC)
   • Forecast: 1.370M | Previous: 1.324M
   • Market Impact:
     • Key for construction sector outlook; a recovery may support broader GDP growth.
10. Import Price Index (MoM) (Apr) (12:30 UTC)
    • Forecast: -0.4% | Previous: -0.1%
    • Market Impact:
      • Further declines may ease inflationary pressures, supporting a dovish Fed stance.
11. University of Michigan Sentiment Data (14:00 UTC)
    • 1-Year Inflation Expectations: Previous: 6.5%
    • 5-Year Inflation Expectations: Previous: 4.4%
    • Consumer Expectations: Previous: 47.3
    • Consumer Sentiment: Forecast: 53.1 | Previous: 52.2
    • Market Impact:
      • Higher inflation expectations could raise rate hike odds, while sentiment trends affect consumer spending outlook.
12. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) (15:30 UTC)
    • Previous: Not stated
    • Market Impact:
      • Upward revisions support risk assets; downgrades may pressure USD and equities.
13. U.S. Baker Hughes Rig Counts (17:00 UTC)
    • Previous: Oil: 474 | Total: 578
    • Market Impact:
      • Changes reflect energy sector investment; falling rigs may support oil prices.
14. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC)
    • Crude Oil: 175.4K
    • Gold: 162.5K
    • Nasdaq 100: 32.8K
    • S&P 500: -76.4K
    • AUD: -48.4K
    • JPY: 176.9K
    • EUR: 75.7K
    • Market Impact:
      • Sentiment barometer for major assets and currencies; sharp changes may hint at risk reallocation.

Market Impact Analysis

• USD: Eyes on housing, consumer data, and inflation signals; likely to remain sensitive to downside surprises.
• EUR: Influenced by ECB commentary and trade data; downside risk if sentiment weakens.
• JPY: Dependent on BoJ tone and production recovery.
• AUD & NZD: May react to inflation expectations and global commodity trends.
• Commodities: Oil may react to rig count and inventories, while gold sensitive to sentiment and speculative flows.

Overall Impact Score: 6/10

Key Focus: U.S. housing and inflation data, ECB signals, global sentiment from commodity trends.