Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | | Previous |
| 02:00 |  | 2 points | Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (May) | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| 02:00 | | 2 points | Industrial Production (YoY) (May) | 5.9% | 6.1% |
| 02:00 | | 2 points | Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (May) | ———- | 6.4% |
| 02:00 | | 2 points | Chinese Unemployment Rate (May) | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| 02:00 | | 2 points | NBS Press Conference | ———- | ———- |
| 09:00 |  | 2 points | Wages in euro zone (YoY) (Q1) | ———- | 4.10% |
| 11:00 |  | 2 points | OPEC Monthly Report | ———- | ———- |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun) | -5.90 | -9.20 |
| 17:00 | | 2 points | 20-Year Bond Auction | ———- | 5.104% |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on June 16, 2025
China
1. Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (May) – 02:00 UTC
- Forecast: 4.0% | Previous: 4.0%
- Market Impact:
- Stable investment growth signals steady domestic demand.
- A weaker reading may increase expectations for further stimulus, possibly weighing on CNY and global commodity prices.
2. Industrial Production (YoY) (May) – 02:00 UTC
- Forecast: 5.9% | Previous: 6.1%
- Market Impact:
- Slower growth may indicate moderating manufacturing output, impacting global demand outlook and commodity-sensitive currencies.
3. Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (May) – 02:00 UTC
- Previous: 6.4%
- Market Impact:
- Confirms the longer-term trend in China’s industrial sector.
4. Unemployment Rate (May) – 02:00 UTC
- Forecast: 5.1% | Previous: 5.1%
- Market Impact:
- Stable or rising unemployment may reflect ongoing domestic economic pressure, prompting further policy easing discussions.
5. NBS Press Conference – 02:00 UTC
- Market Impact:
- May provide official commentary on economic conditions and signal policy intentions.
Eurozone
6. Wages in Eurozone (YoY) (Q1) – 09:00 UTC
- Previous: 4.10%
- Market Impact:
- Higher wage growth would suggest persistent domestic inflationary pressures, potentially influencing ECB policy expectations.
- A weaker reading may support the ECB’s dovish guidance after the recent rate cut.
United States
7. OPEC Monthly Report – 11:00 UTC
- Market Impact:
- Updated supply/demand forecasts may significantly affect oil prices and inflation expectations.
- Hawkish output cuts could lift oil and energy sector stocks; rising production forecasts may weigh on oil.
8. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun) – 12:30 UTC
- Forecast: -5.90 | Previous: -9.20
- Market Impact:
- An improving figure, though still negative, suggests manufacturing sector remains under pressure.
- Better-than-expected data may provide modest USD support; a worsening figure could weigh on risk sentiment.
9. 20-Year Bond Auction – 17:00 UTC
- Previous Yield: 5.104%
- Market Impact:
- Demand at the auction will signal investor appetite for long-duration Treasuries.
- Weak demand may push yields higher, pressuring equities and bond markets.
Market Impact Analysis
- The day’s focus is on China’s May economic activity data, which will give a clear view of the health of China’s recovery.
- In the U.S., manufacturing activity and the bond auction will help refine growth and interest rate expectations.
- The OPEC report could introduce further volatility into the energy markets, influencing broader inflation sentiment.
- Eurozone wage data will be important for assessing underlying inflationary pressures as the ECB calibrates policy.
Overall Impact Score: 7/10
Key Focus:
This session offers a broad view of global demand and inflation trends through China’s data, U.S. manufacturing sentiment, and the OPEC report. Combined, these events could generate moderate to high volatility in USD, CNY, EUR, oil markets, and global equities, particularly if any surprises emerge in Chinese production, U.S. manufacturing, or oil supply forecasts.
