Upcoming economic events 16 July 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
04:30		2 points	Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM)	0.1%	1.9%
09:00		2 points	Trade Balance (May)	17.1B	15.0B
09:00		2 points	ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul)	48.1	51.3
10:00		2 points	Eurogroup Meetings	———	———
12:30		2 points	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)	0.1%	-0.1%
12:30		2 points	Export Price Index (MoM) (Jun)	———	-0.6%
12:30		2 points	Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun)	0.2%	-0.4%
12:30		2 points	Retail Control (MoM) (Jun)	———	0.4%
12:30		2 points	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)	-0.2%	0.1%
14:00		2 points	Business Inventories (MoM) (May)	0.4%	0.3%
14:00		2 points	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May)	0.0%	0.3%
16:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)	2.0%	2.0%
20:30		2 points	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	———	-1.923M
22:45		2 points	CPI (QoQ) (Q2)	0.5%	0.6%
22:45		2 points	CPI (YoY) (Q2)	3.5%	4.0%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 16, 2024

1. Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) (May): Monthly change in service sector activity. Forecast: +0.1%, Previous: +1.9%.
2. Eurozone Trade Balance (May): Difference between exports and imports. Forecast: 17.1B, Previous: 15.0B.
3. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jul): Survey of economic sentiment among investors and analysts. Forecast: 48.1, Previous: 51.3.
4. Eurogroup Meetings: Discussions by Eurozone finance ministers on economic policies.
5. US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): Change in total retail sales excluding automobiles. Forecast: +0.1%, Previous: -0.1%.
6. US Export Price Index (MoM) (Jun): Monthly change in prices of exported goods. Previous: -0.6%.
7. US Import Price Index (MoM) (Jun): Monthly change in prices of imported goods. Forecast: +0.2%, Previous: -0.4%.
8. US Retail Control (MoM) (Jun): Core measure of retail sales. Previous: +0.4%.
9. US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): Monthly change in total retail sales. Forecast: -0.2%, Previous: +0.1%.
10. US Business Inventories (MoM) (May): Change in the value of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. Forecast: +0.4%, Previous: +0.3%.
11. US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (May): Change in retail inventories excluding automobiles. Previous: +0.0%.
12. US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2): Real-time estimate of U.S. GDP growth for Q2. Forecast: +2.0%, Previous: +2.0%.
13. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Weekly change in U.S. crude oil inventories. Previous: -1.923M.
14. New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q2): Quarterly change in consumer prices. Forecast: +0.5%, Previous: +0.6%.
15. New Zealand CPI (YoY) (Q2): Annual change in consumer prices. Forecast: +3.5%, Previous: +4.0%.

Market Impact Analysis

• Japan Tertiary Industry Activity Index: Stable or increasing activity supports JPY; a significant decline could indicate economic slowing.
• Eurozone Trade Balance: Higher surplus supports EUR; a lower surplus could indicate weaker export performance.
• Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment: Declining sentiment may weaken EUR; improvement supports confidence in Eurozone economy.
• Eurogroup Meetings: Expected discussions maintain stability; surprises could affect Eurozone markets.
• US Core Retail Sales: Growth in retail sales excluding autos supports USD and market confidence; declines indicate weaker consumer spending.
• US Export and Import Price Indexes: Rising export prices support trade balance; increasing import prices indicate inflationary pressures.
• US Retail Sales: Overall retail sales growth supports USD and economic outlook; declines could signal economic weakness.
• US Business Inventories: Rising inventories suggest strong production; declines indicate potential supply chain issues.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Stable GDP estimate supports confidence; significant changes impact market outlook.
• API Weekly Crude Oil Stock: Lower inventories support oil prices; higher inventories could pressure prices down.
• New Zealand CPI: Stable or rising inflation supports NZD; declines could indicate economic cooling.

Overall Impact

• Volatility: Moderate to high, with potential significant reactions in currency, equity, and commodity markets.
• Impact Score: 6/10, indicating moderate potential for market movements.