Upcoming economic events 16 January 2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	Employment Change (Dec)	14.5K	35.6K
00:30		2 points	Full Employment Change (Dec)	———-	52.6K
00:30		2 points	Unemployment Rate (Dec)	4.0%	3.9%
10:00		2 points	Trade Balance (Nov)	11.8B	6.8B
12:30		2 points	ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting	———-	———-
13:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,870K	1,867K
13:30		2 points	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)	0.5%	0.2%
13:30		2 points	Export Price Index (MoM) (Dec)	0.2%	0.0%
13:30		2 points	Import Price Index (MoM) (Dec)	-0.1%	0.1%
13:30		2 points	Initial Jobless Claims	210K	201K
13:30		2 points	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan)	-5.2	-16.4
13:30		2 points	Philly Fed Employment (Jan)	———-	6.6
13:30		2 points	Retail Control (MoM) (Dec)	———-	0.4%
13:30		2 points	Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)	0.6%	0.7%
15:00		2 points	Business Inventories (MoM) (Nov)	0.1%	0.1%
15:00		2 points	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Nov)	0.6%	0.1%
16:00		2 points	FOMC Member Williams Speaks	———-	———-
18:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	2.7%	2.7%
21:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———-	6,854B
21:30		2 points	Business NZ PMI (Dec)	———-	45.5

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on January 16, 2025

Australia

1. Employment Change (00:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 14.5K, Previous: 35.6K.
     A lower-than-expected reading may indicate a cooling labor market.
2. Full Employment Change (00:30 UTC):
   • No forecast. Previous: 52.6K.
     Tracks changes in full-time employment; significant variations can influence AUD sentiment.
3. Unemployment Rate (00:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 4.0%, Previous: 3.9%.
     An increase signals softening in the Australian labor market, weighing on the AUD.

European Union

4. Trade Balance (10:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: €11.8B, Previous: €6.8B.
     A widening trade surplus suggests stronger exports, potentially supporting the EUR.
5. ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting (12:30 UTC):
   Details of the ECB’s December policy meeting, providing insight into inflation, growth expectations, and policy direction.

United States

6. Continuing Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 1,870K, Previous: 1,867K.
7. Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 210K, Previous: 201K.
     Both metrics highlight U.S. labor market strength; unexpected increases may raise concerns.
8. Core Retail Sales (MoM) (13:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 0.5%, Previous: 0.2%.
     Indicates underlying consumer demand excluding volatile items like autos.
9. Retail Sales (MoM) (13:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: 0.7%.
     A key indicator of economic health; softer data might hint at slowing consumer spending.
10. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (13:30 UTC):
    • Forecast: -5.2, Previous: -16.4.
      Improvement from deeply negative levels suggests recovery in manufacturing activity.
11. Business Inventories (MoM) (15:00 UTC):
    • Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.1%.
12. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) (18:00 UTC):
    • Forecast: 2.7%, Previous: 2.7%.
      Reflects updated growth expectations for Q4 GDP based on real-time data.
13. FOMC Member Williams Speaks (16:00 UTC):
    Commentary from this key voting member can provide clues on the Fed’s rate trajectory.

New Zealand

14. Business NZ PMI (21:30 UTC):
    • Previous: 45.5.
      A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector.

Market Impact Analysis

AUD:

• Weaker employment data and a rising unemployment rate could pressure the AUD.

EUR:

• A stronger trade balance and hawkish ECB minutes may support the EUR.

USD:

• Retail sales and jobless claims data will drive market sentiment. Strong readings could reinforce expectations of Fed tightening, supporting the USD.

Volatility & Impact Score

• Volatility: High (Retail Sales, ECB meeting minutes, and employment data).
• Impact Score: 8/10 – Key economic data and policy updates across major regions.