Upcoming economic events 16 December 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI (Dec)	—————-	50.5
02:00		2 points	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Nov)	3.5%	3.4%
02:00		2 points	Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov)	5.4%	5.3%
02:00		2 points	Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Nov)	—————-	5.8%
02:00		2 points	Chinese Unemployment Rate (Nov)	5.0%	5.0%
02:00		2 points	NBS Press Conference	—————-	—————-
08:15		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	—————-	—————-
08:35		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	—————-	—————-
08:45		2 points	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	—————-	—————-
09:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Dec)	45.3	45.2
09:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI (Dec)	—————-	48.3
09:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Services PMI (Dec)	49.5	49.5
10:00		2 points	Wages in euro zone (YoY) (Q3)	—————-	4.50%
13:30		2 points	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec)	6.40	31.20
14:45		2 points	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Dec)	49.4	49.7
14:45		2 points	S&P Global Composite PMI (Dec)	—————-	54.9
14:45		2 points	S&P Global Services PMI (Dec)	55.7	56.1
16:30		2 points	ECB’s Schnabel Speaks	—————-	—————-

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 16, 2024

1. Japan Services PMI (Dec) (00:30 UTC):
   • Previous: 50.5.
     Indicates activity in Japan’s service sector. A PMI above 50 signals expansion. Strong data would support the JPY, while weaker readings could weigh on the currency.
2. China Economic Data (02:00 UTC):
   • Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Nov): Forecast: 3.5%, Previous: 3.4%.
   • Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov): Forecast: 5.4%, Previous: 5.3%.
   • Unemployment Rate (Nov): Forecast: 5.0%, Previous: 5.0%.
     Indicators of economic activity and labor market conditions in China. Strong data would support the CNY and global risk sentiment, benefiting commodity-linked currencies like AUD.
3. Eurozone Economic Events (08:15–16:30 UTC):
   • ECB Speeches: President Lagarde (08:15, 08:35), De Guindos (08:45), Schnabel (16:30).
     Commentary on monetary policy and economic conditions will impact EUR sentiment.
   • HCOB PMIs (Dec) (09:00 UTC):
     • Manufacturing PMI: Forecast: 45.3, Previous: 45.2.
     • Composite PMI: Previous: 48.3.
     • Services PMI: Forecast: 49.5, Previous: 49.5.
       PMIs below 50 indicate contraction. Stabilization or improvement would support the EUR, while further declines may weigh on the currency.
   • Eurozone Wages (YoY) (Q3) (10:00 UTC):
     • Previous: 4.50%.
       Reflects wage growth trends. Accelerating wages would support the EUR by signaling inflationary pressures.
4. US Economic Data (13:30–14:45 UTC):
   • NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec): Forecast: 6.40, Previous: 31.20.
   • S&P Global PMIs (Dec) (14:45 UTC):
     • Manufacturing PMI: Forecast: 49.4, Previous: 49.7.
     • Composite PMI: Previous: 54.9.
     • Services PMI: Forecast: 55.7, Previous: 56.1.
       Weak PMIs would weigh on the USD, while strong data would reinforce USD strength by signaling resilience in economic activity.

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Market Impact Analysis

• Japan Services PMI:
  Improving PMI would signal expansion in the services sector, supporting the JPY. Declining PMI could indicate economic headwinds, weighing on the currency.
• China Economic Data:
  Strong industrial production or fixed asset investment would signal robust economic activity, supporting the CNY and boosting commodity-linked currencies. Weak data could dampen global risk sentiment.
• Eurozone PMIs & ECB Speeches:
  Stabilizing or improving PMIs would support the EUR by signaling resilience. Hawkish ECB commentary from Lagarde, De Guindos, or Schnabel would reinforce EUR strength, while dovish remarks would weaken it.
• US PMIs & Empire State Index:
  Positive data would indicate resilience in manufacturing and services, supporting the USD. Weaker PMIs would suggest economic slowing, potentially weighing on the currency.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate to high, with focus on PMIs from Japan, China, the Eurozone, and the US, alongside ECB commentary influencing EUR sentiment.

Impact Score: 7/10, driven by key PMI readings, ECB remarks, and US manufacturing and services data shaping market movements for JPY, CNY, EUR, and USD.