Upcoming economic events 15 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
04:30		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)	-3.3%	-3.3%
09:00		2 points	IEA Monthly Report	———	———
09:00		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug)	1.8%	-0.3%
09:05		2 points	ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct)	16.9	9.3
12:30		2 points	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Oct)	3.40	11.50
15:30		2 points	FOMC Member Daly Speaks	———	———
18:00		2 points	Federal Budget Balance (Sep)	61.0B	-380.0B
21:45		2 points	CPI (YoY) (Q3)	2.2%	3.3%
21:45		2 points	CPI (QoQ) (Q3)	0.7%	0.4%
23:00		2 points	FOMC Member Bostic Speaks	———	———

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 15, 2024

1. Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) (04:30 UTC):
   Measures the monthly change in industrial output. Forecast: -3.3%, Previous: -3.3%. A decline signals continued weakness in Japan’s manufacturing sector.
2. IEA Monthly Report (09:00 UTC):
   The International Energy Agency’s monthly report provides a detailed analysis of global energy markets, including supply and demand forecasts that can influence oil and gas prices.
3. Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Aug) (09:00 UTC):
   Measures changes in industrial output in the Eurozone. Forecast: 1.8%, Previous: -0.3%. A rebound in production would signal economic recovery, supporting the EUR.
4. Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Oct) (09:05 UTC):
   A survey of economic sentiment among institutional investors. Forecast: 16.9, Previous: 9.3. Higher numbers reflect improving optimism about the Eurozone economy.
5. US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Oct) (12:30 UTC):
   An indicator of manufacturing activity in New York state. Forecast: 3.40, Previous: 11.50. A lower reading signals a slowdown in manufacturing.
6. FOMC Member Daly Speaks (15:30 UTC):
   Remarks from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly may provide insights into the Fed’s future policy stance, particularly around inflation and interest rates.
7. US Federal Budget Balance (Sep) (18:00 UTC):
   Tracks the difference between government revenue and expenditure. Forecast: $61.0B, Previous: -$380.0B. A surplus would indicate fiscal improvement, which could support the USD.
8. New Zealand CPI (YoY) (Q3) (21:45 UTC):
   Annual inflation rate in New Zealand. Forecast: 2.2%, Previous: 3.3%. A decline in inflation may reduce pressure on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to raise rates.
9. New Zealand CPI (QoQ) (Q3) (21:45 UTC):
   Quarterly inflation rate in New Zealand. Forecast: 0.7%, Previous: 0.4%. Higher inflation could support the NZD, while lower-than-expected data may weaken it.
10. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks (23:00 UTC):
    Remarks from Raphael Bostic, President of the Atlanta Fed, may offer further insights into the Federal Reserve’s outlook on inflation and interest rates.

Market Impact Analysis

• Japan Industrial Production:
  Continued declines would signal ongoing weakness in Japan’s industrial sector, likely weighing on the JPY.
• IEA Monthly Report:
  The report’s insights into global energy markets could influence oil prices. A tighter supply outlook would support prices, while a forecast of oversupply could weigh on them.
• Eurozone Industrial Production & ZEW Economic Sentiment:
  Stronger-than-expected production data and improving economic sentiment would support the EUR by signaling recovery in the Eurozone economy. Weak numbers could dampen optimism.
• US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index:
  A sharp drop in manufacturing activity would suggest economic weakness, potentially softening the USD. Stronger-than-expected data would have the opposite effect.
• New Zealand CPI (YoY & QoQ):
  Lower inflation in New Zealand would reduce pressure on the central bank to raise interest rates, weakening the NZD. Higher-than-expected inflation would likely support the NZD by increasing the likelihood of future rate hikes.
• FOMC Speeches (Daly, Bostic):
  Hawkish comments from Daly or Bostic could support the USD by signaling further interest rate hikes. Dovish remarks might weaken the USD by suggesting caution over economic growth.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate to high, with key focus on global energy markets (via IEA report), inflation data from New Zealand, and US manufacturing activity. Central bank commentary from FOMC members will also be crucial in shaping market expectations for future monetary policy.

Impact Score: 7/10, driven by key economic data from the Eurozone, New Zealand inflation figures, and US manufacturing indicators, all of which could influence global market sentiment and monetary policy expectations.