Upcoming economic events 15 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
02:00		2 points	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Oct)	3.5%	3.4%
02:00		2 points	Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)	5.5%	5.4%
02:00		2 points	Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Oct)	———	5.8%
02:00		2 points	Chinese Unemployment Rate (Oct)	5.1%	5.1%
02:00		2 points	NBS Press Conference	———	———
04:30		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)	1.4%	1.4%
10:00		2 points	EU Economic Forecasts	———	———
10:00		2 points	Eurogroup Meetings	———	———
11:30		2 points	ECB McCaul Speaks	———	———
13:30		3 points	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)	0.3%	0.5%
13:30		2 points	Export Price Index (MoM) (Oct)	-0.1%	-0.7%
13:30		2 points	Import Price Index (MoM) (Oct)	-0.1%	-0.4%
13:30		2 points	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov)	-0.30	-11.90
13:30		2 points	Retail Control (MoM) (Oct)	———	0.7%
13:30		3 points	Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)	0.3%	0.4%
14:15		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Oct)	-0.3%	-0.3%
14:15		2 points	Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct)	———	-0.64%
15:00		2 points	Business Inventories (MoM) (Sep)	0.2%	0.3%
15:00		2 points	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Sep)	0.1%	0.1%
15:00		2 points	ECB’s Lane Speaks	———	———
18:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	2.5%	2.5%
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———	479
18:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———	585
18:15		2 points	FOMC Member Williams Speaks	———	———
20:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———	196.1K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———	255.3K
20:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———	16.1K
20:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———	113.4K
20:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———	31.0K
20:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———	-44.2K
20:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———	-21.7K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 15, 2024

1. China Economic Data (02:00 UTC):

• Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Oct): Forecast: 3.5%, Previous: 3.4%.
• Industrial Production (YoY) (Oct): Forecast: 5.5%, Previous: 5.4%.
• Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Oct): Previous: 5.8%.
• Unemployment Rate (Oct): Forecast: 5.1%, Previous: 5.1%.
  Higher fixed asset investment and industrial production would indicate economic growth, supporting the CNY. The unemployment rate is also critical for assessing China’s economic stability.

1. Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) (04:30 UTC):
   Forecast: 1.4%, Previous: 1.4%. Growth in production signals increased industrial activity, supporting the JPY.
2. EU Economic Forecasts & Eurogroup Meetings (10:00 UTC):
   The EU’s economic forecasts and meetings among Eurogroup leaders could influence EUR sentiment depending on growth, inflation projections, or fiscal policy updates.
3. ECB McCaul Speaks (11:30 UTC):
   Comments from ECB Supervisory Board Member Edouard Fernandez-Bollo McCaul could impact the EUR depending on his views on financial stability and inflation.
4. US Retail & Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct) (13:30 UTC):

• Core Retail Sales: Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.5%.
• Retail Sales: Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.4%.
  Strong retail sales growth supports the USD by indicating consumer demand, while weaker figures could suggest a slowing economy.

1. US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Nov) (13:30 UTC):
   Forecast: -0.30, Previous: -11.90. A less negative or positive figure would signal improvement in manufacturing, supporting the USD.
2. US Industrial Production (MoM & YoY) (Oct) (14:15 UTC):

• MoM: Forecast: -0.3%, Previous: -0.3%.
• YoY: Previous: -0.64%.
  Declines would signal weak manufacturing, potentially weighing on the USD.

1. US Business & Retail Inventories (MoM) (15:00 UTC):

• Business Inventories (MoM): Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.3%.
• Retail Inventories Ex Auto (MoM): Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.1%.
  Rising inventories suggest weaker demand, while stable or lower figures would support the USD by indicating strong demand.

1. ECB’s Lane Speaks (15:00 UTC):
   Remarks from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane on economic or monetary policy may influence the EUR.
2. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) (18:00 UTC):
   Forecast: 2.5%, Previous: 2.5%. Updates to this real-time GDP forecast impact USD expectations around US economic strength.
3. US Baker Hughes Rig Counts (18:00 UTC):
   Tracks oil and gas exploration activity. Rising rig counts suggest increased production, potentially weighing on oil prices.
4. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (20:30 UTC):
   Data on speculative positioning in major commodities, equities, and currencies can influence market sentiment.

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Market Impact Analysis

• China Economic Data:
  Higher industrial production and fixed asset investment would indicate growth, supporting risk sentiment and commodity-linked currencies. Weaker-than-expected data would signal slowing momentum, potentially dampening global market sentiment.
• Japan Industrial Production:
  Positive production growth would signal economic resilience, supporting the JPY. Weak data may indicate economic challenges, weighing on the currency.
• EU Economic Forecasts & ECB Speeches:
  Optimistic forecasts and hawkish comments from ECB officials would support the EUR by indicating resilience and potential tightening. Dovish or cautious commentary may weigh on the EUR.
• US Retail Sales & Industrial Production:
  Strong retail sales and improved manufacturing data would support the USD, indicating demand resilience. Declines in production or sales would suggest economic cooling, potentially softening the USD.
• US Baker Hughes Rig Counts & CFTC Speculative Positions:
  Rising rig counts could weigh on oil prices by signaling higher supply. Speculative positions provide insights into market sentiment for commodities, currencies, and indices.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, with market focus on economic data from China, Japan, and the US, along with updates from ECB officials and the Eurogroup. US retail sales, industrial production, and speculative positioning will also influence risk sentiment and currency markets.

Impact Score: 7/10, due to key retail and industrial data releases, economic projections, and central bank commentary impacting expectations for growth, inflation, and monetary policy across major economies.