Upcoming economic events 15 August 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	Employment Change (Jul)	20.2K	50.2K
01:30		2 points	Full Employment Change (Jul)	———	43.3K
01:30		2 points	Unemployment Rate (Jul)	4.1%	4.1%
02:00		2 points	Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul)	3.9%	3.9%
02:00		2 points	Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)	5.2%	5.3%
02:00		2 points	Chinese Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Jul)	———	6.0%
02:00		2 points	Chinese Unemployment Rate (Jul)	5.1%	5.0%
02:00		2 points	NBS Press Conference	———	———
04:30		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)	-3.6%	3.6%
11:30		2 points	ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting	———	———
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,880K	1,875K
12:30		3 points	Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)	0.1%	0.4%
12:30		2 points	Export Price Index (MoM) (Jul)	0.0%	-0.5%
12:30		2 points	Import Price Index (MoM) (Jul)	-0.1%	0.0%
12:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	236K	233K
12:30		2 points	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug)	-5.90	-6.60
12:30		3 points	Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug)	5.4	13.9
12:30		2 points	Philly Fed Employment (Aug)	———	15.2
12:30		2 points	Retail Control (MoM) (Jul)	———	0.9%
12:30		3 points	Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul)	0.4%	0.0%
13:15		2 points	Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul)	———	1.58%
13:15		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul)	-0.3%	0.6%
14:00		2 points	Business Inventories (MoM) (Jun)	0.3%	0.5%
14:00		2 points	Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jun)	0.2%	0.0%
16:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)	2.9%	2.9%
17:10		2 points	FOMC Member Harker Speaks	———	———
20:00		2 points	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Jun)	56.3B	-54.6B
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———	7,175B
22:30		2 points	Business NZ PMI (Jul)	———	41.1
22:45		2 points	PPI Input (QoQ) (Q2)	0.5%	0.7%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on August 15, 2024

1. Australia Employment Change (Jul): Monthly change in the number of employed people. Forecast: +20.2K, Previous: +50.2K.
2. Australia Full Employment Change (Jul): Change in full-time employment. Previous: +43.3K.
3. Australia Unemployment Rate (Jul): Percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. Forecast: 4.1%, Previous: 4.1%.
4. China Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Jul): Annual change in investment in physical assets such as infrastructure and machinery. Forecast: +3.9%, Previous: +3.9%.
5. China Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul): Annual change in industrial output. Forecast: +5.2%, Previous: +5.3%.
6. China Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (Jul): Year-to-date change in industrial output. Previous: +6.0%.
7. China Unemployment Rate (Jul): Percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. Forecast: 5.1%, Previous: 5.0%.
8. Japan Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun): Monthly change in industrial output. Forecast: -3.6%, Previous: +3.6%.
9. ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting: Provides insights into the ECB’s economic outlook and future policy decisions.
10. US Continuing Jobless Claims: Number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits. Forecast: 1,880K, Previous: 1,875K.
11. US Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul): Monthly change in retail sales excluding automobiles. Forecast: +0.1%, Previous: +0.4%.
12. US Export Price Index (MoM) (Jul): Monthly change in the prices of exported goods. Forecast: 0.0%, Previous: -0.5%.
13. US Import Price Index (MoM) (Jul): Monthly change in the prices of imported goods. Forecast: -0.1%, Previous: 0.0%.
14. US Initial Jobless Claims: Number of new unemployment claims. Forecast: 236K, Previous: 233K.
15. US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Aug): Survey of manufacturing conditions in New York State. Forecast: -5.90, Previous: -6.60.
16. US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Aug): Survey of manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia area. Forecast: +5.4, Previous: +13.9.
17. US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jul): Monthly change in total retail sales. Forecast: +0.4%, Previous: 0.0%.
18. US Industrial Production (YoY) (Jul): Annual change in industrial output. Previous: +1.58%.
19. US Industrial Production (MoM) (Jul): Monthly change in industrial output. Forecast: -0.3%, Previous: +0.6%.
20. US Business Inventories (MoM) (Jun): Monthly change in the value of inventories held by manufacturers, wholesalers, and retailers. Forecast: +0.3%, Previous: +0.5%.
21. US Retail Inventories Ex Auto (Jun): Monthly change in retail inventories excluding automobiles. Forecast: +0.2%, Previous: 0.0%.
22. US Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3): Real-time estimate of US GDP growth for Q3. Previous: +2.9%.
23. US FOMC Member Harker Speaks: Provides insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
24. US TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Jun): Net purchases of US securities by foreign investors. Forecast: +56.3B, Previous: -54.6B.
25. Fed’s Balance Sheet: Weekly update on the Federal Reserve’s assets and liabilities. Previous: 7,175B.
26. New Zealand Business NZ PMI (Jul): Measures the level of activity in New Zealand’s manufacturing sector. Previous: 41.1.
27. New Zealand PPI Input (QoQ) (Q2): Quarterly change in producer price index input costs. Forecast: +0.5%, Previous: +0.7%.

Market Impact Analysis

• Australia Employment and Unemployment Data: Strong employment figures support AUD; stable unemployment rate indicates a healthy labor market.
• China Industrial Production and Fixed Asset Investment: Strong industrial output and investment support CNY and indicate economic stability.
• Japan Industrial Production: A significant decline may signal economic weakness, impacting JPY and market sentiment.
• US Retail Sales and Jobless Claims: Positive retail sales and low jobless claims support USD and indicate economic strength.
• ECB and Fed Communications: Insights into future monetary policy from ECB and Fed members could influence EUR and USD, respectively.
• New Zealand PMI and PPI Data: A weak PMI suggests manufacturing struggles, potentially impacting NZD.

Overall Impact

• Volatility: High, with significant potential reactions in equity, bond, currency, and commodity markets.
• Impact Score: 8/10, indicating a high potential for market movements.