Upcoming economic events 14 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
03:00		2 points	Exports (YoY) (Sep)	6.0%	8.7%
03:00		2 points	Imports (YoY) (Sep)	0.9%	0.5%
03:00		2 points	Trade Balance (USD) (Sep)	91.50B	91.02B
11:00		2 points	OPEC Monthly Report	———	———
13:00		2 points	FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks	———	———
15:00		2 points	NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (Sep)	———	3.0%
18:00		2 points	Federal Budget Balance (Sep)	61.0B	-380.0B
19:00		2 points	Fed Waller Speaks	———	———
21:00		2 points	FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks	———	———

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 14, 2024

1. China Exports (YoY) (Sep) (03:00 UTC):
   Measures the annual change in the value of goods exported from China. Forecast: 6.0%, Previous: 8.7%. A slowdown in exports could indicate weaker global demand.
2. China Imports (YoY) (Sep) (03:00 UTC):
   Measures the annual change in the value of goods imported into China. Forecast: 0.9%, Previous: 0.5%. A rise in imports may signal improving domestic demand.
3. China Trade Balance (USD) (Sep) (03:00 UTC):
   The difference between the value of China’s exports and imports. Forecast: $91.50B, Previous: $91.02B. A larger trade surplus indicates stronger export performance relative to imports.
4. OPEC Monthly Report (11:00 UTC):
   Provides detailed analysis of global oil market conditions, supply, and demand forecasts, which can influence oil prices and market expectations for energy.
5. FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks (13:00 UTC & 21:00 UTC):
   Neel Kashkari, President of the Minneapolis Fed, may offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s outlook on inflation, growth, and future interest rate decisions.
6. NY Fed 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectations (Sep) (15:00 UTC):
   Tracks consumer expectations for inflation over the next year. Previous: 3.0%. A rise in expectations could influence market sentiment about future Fed policy.
7. US Federal Budget Balance (Sep) (18:00 UTC):
   The difference between US government revenue and spending. Forecast: $61.0B, Previous: -$380.0B. A surplus would signal fiscal improvement, supporting the USD.
8. Fed Waller Speaks (19:00 UTC):
   Remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller may provide further insights into the Fed’s stance on inflation and interest rates, which could impact market expectations.

Market Impact Analysis

• China Trade Data (Exports, Imports, Trade Balance):
  Stronger-than-expected export figures would suggest solid global demand, supporting commodity prices and risk assets, while weak numbers could indicate a global slowdown, weighing on currencies like the AUD. Rising imports could signal stronger domestic demand in China, boosting market sentiment for growth-linked assets.
• OPEC Monthly Report:
  Changes in OPEC’s outlook on oil supply and demand could move oil prices. A tighter supply outlook would support higher oil prices, while signals of oversupply could weigh on them.
• FOMC Speeches (Kashkari & Waller):
  Hawkish comments from Kashkari or Waller could support the USD by increasing expectations of future rate hikes. Dovish remarks may indicate caution about economic growth, weakening the USD.
• NY Fed Inflation Expectations:
  Higher inflation expectations would suggest ongoing inflationary pressures, supporting the USD by implying more aggressive Fed tightening. Lower expectations could reduce concerns about inflation, softening the USD.
• US Federal Budget Balance:
  A budget surplus would signal improved fiscal health, which could strengthen the USD, while a larger-than-expected deficit may weaken it by raising concerns over fiscal sustainability.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with a focus on China’s trade data and speeches from key Federal Reserve members. Markets will react to signals about inflation expectations and potential shifts in US monetary policy, as well as OPEC’s outlook on the oil market.

Impact Score: 6/10, with key events like China’s trade data and US inflation expectations playing a critical role in shaping market sentiment and expectations for economic growth and monetary policy.