Upcoming economic events 14 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	Employment Change (Oct)	25.2K	64.1K
00:30		2 points	Full Employment Change (Oct)	———	51.6K
00:30		2 points	Unemployment Rate (Oct)	4.1%	4.1%
08:30		2 points	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	———	———
10:00		2 points	IEA Monthly Report	———	———
10:00		2 points	GDP (YoY) (Q3)	0.9%	0.6%
10:00		2 points	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	0.4%	0.2%
10:00		2 points	Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)	-1.3%	1.8%
12:30		2 points	ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting	———	———
13:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,880K	1,892K
13:30		2 points	Core PPI (MoM) (Oct)	0.3%	0.2%
13:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	224K	221K
13:30		3 points	PPI (MoM) (Oct)	0.2%	0.0%
16:00		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	1.000M	2.149M
16:00		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———	0.522M
18:30		2 points	ECB’s Schnabel Speaks	———	———
19:00		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———	———
20:00		3 points	Fed Chair Powell Speaks	———	———
21:15		2 points	FOMC Member Williams Speaks	———	———
21:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———	6,994B
21:30		2 points	Business NZ PMI (Oct)	———	46.9
23:50		2 points	GDP (YoY) (Q3)	———	2.9%
23:50		3 points	GDP (QoQ) (Q3)	0.2%	0.7%
23:50		2 points	GDP Price Index (YoY) (Q3)	2.8%	3.1%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 14, 2024

1. Australia Employment Data (Oct) (00:30 UTC):

• Employment Change: Forecast: 25.2K, Previous: 64.1K.
• Full Employment Change: Previous: 51.6K.
• Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 4.1%, Previous: 4.1%.
  Strong employment growth would support the AUD by signaling a robust labor market, while weaker data or a rise in unemployment could weigh on the currency.

1. ECB’s De Guindos Speaks (08:30 UTC):
   Remarks from ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos may provide insights into the Eurozone’s economic conditions and monetary policy, potentially influencing the EUR.
2. IEA Monthly Report (10:00 UTC):
   The International Energy Agency’s monthly report includes updates on global energy supply and demand forecasts. The report can impact oil prices and energy-related currencies based on any revisions to supply and demand expectations.
3. Eurozone GDP (Q3) (10:00 UTC):

• YoY: Forecast: 0.9%, Previous: 0.6%.
• QoQ: Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.2%.
  Stronger-than-expected GDP growth would support the EUR by indicating economic resilience, while weaker data could weigh on the currency.

1. Eurozone Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep) (10:00 UTC):
   Forecast: -1.3%, Previous: 1.8%. A decline would signal slowing industrial activity, potentially weakening the EUR.
2. ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (12:30 UTC):
   Minutes from the ECB’s latest policy meeting could provide insights into the bank’s view on inflation and economic growth, influencing EUR sentiment.
3. US Jobless Claims & PPI (Oct) (13:30 UTC):

• Continuing Jobless Claims: Forecast: 1,880K, Previous: 1,892K.
• Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast: 224K, Previous: 221K.
• Core PPI (MoM): Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.2%.
• PPI (MoM): Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.0%.
  Rising claims may indicate a weakening labor market, while an increase in PPI would signal inflationary pressures, potentially impacting Fed policy and the USD.

1. US Crude Oil Inventories (16:00 UTC):
   Forecast: 1.000M, Previous: 2.149M. A larger-than-expected build in inventories would signal weak demand, weighing on oil prices, while a drawdown suggests strong demand.
2. ECB Speeches (Schnabel & Lagarde) (18:30 & 19:00 UTC):
   Remarks from ECB officials could influence expectations for Eurozone monetary policy, impacting the EUR depending on their stance on inflation and economic growth.
3. Fed Chair Powell & FOMC Member Williams Speeches (20:00 & 21:15 UTC):
   Powell’s and Williams’ remarks could provide critical insights into the Fed’s outlook on inflation and interest rates. Hawkish comments would support the USD, while dovish tones could weigh on it.
4. Japan GDP (Q3) (23:50 UTC):
   • YoY: Previous: 2.9%.
   • QoQ: Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.7%.
   • GDP Price Index (YoY): Forecast: 2.8%, Previous: 3.1%.
     Higher growth would support the JPY by indicating economic strength, while lower figures may signal a slowdown, potentially softening the currency.

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Market Impact Analysis

• Australian Employment Data:
  Strong employment growth would support the AUD by indicating labor market resilience. A decline in employment or higher unemployment could weigh on the AUD.
• Eurozone GDP & Industrial Production:
  Strong GDP and production data would signal Eurozone economic resilience, supporting the EUR. Weak figures may weigh on the EUR, especially if industrial activity contracts.
• US Jobless Claims & PPI:
  Higher jobless claims would indicate labor market softening, potentially reducing the USD’s appeal. Rising PPI would signal persistent inflationary pressures, supporting the USD as it could imply more aggressive Fed policy.
• ECB & Fed Speeches (Lagarde, Schnabel, Powell, Williams):
  Hawkish remarks from ECB and Fed officials would support the EUR and USD respectively by reinforcing tighter policy expectations, while dovish remarks may dampen currency strength.
• Japan GDP:
  Stronger-than-expected GDP growth would indicate a recovering economy, supporting the JPY. Lower growth figures would signal economic slowing, potentially weakening the JPY.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, with significant data releases from Australia, the Eurozone, and the US, as well as important speeches from ECB and Fed officials that will influence sentiment on economic growth and monetary policy.

Impact Score: 8/10, driven by labor data, GDP releases, PPI, and central bank guidance, which will shape market expectations for inflation and interest rate policy across major economies.