Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | | Previous |
| 01:30 |  | 2 points | Employment Change (Jul) | 25.3K | 2.0K |
| 01:30 | | 2 points | Full Employment Change (Jul) | ———- | -38.2K |
| 01:30 | | 2 points | Unemployment Rate (Jul) | 4.2% | 4.3% |
| 09:00 |  | 2 points | GDP (YoY) (Q2) | 1.4% | 1.4% |
| 09:00 | | 2 points | GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| 09:00 | | 2 points | Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun) | -0.9% | 1.7% |
| 10:00 | | 2 points | Eurogroup Meetings | ———- | ———- |
| 12:30 |  | 2 points | Continuing Jobless Claims | ———- | 1,974K |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Core PPI (MoM) (Jul) | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 12:30 | | 3 points | Initial Jobless Claims | 220K | 226K |
| 12:30 | | 3 points | PPI (MoM) (Jul) | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | Fed’s Balance Sheet | ———- | 6,641B |
| 22:30 |  | 2 points | Business NZ PMI (Jul) | ———- | 48.8 |
| 23:50 |  | 2 points | GDP (YoY) (Q2) | 0.4% | -0.2% |
| 23:50 | | 3 points | GDP (QoQ) (Q2) | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| 23:50 | | 2 points | GDP Price Index (YoY) (Q2) | 3.1% | 3.3% |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on August 14, 2025
Asia-Pacific – Australia
Employment Change (Jul) – 01:30 UTC
- Forecast: 25.3K (Prev. 2.0K)
- Impact: A sharp rebound in jobs would support AUD and reduce RBA rate-cut expectations. Weak results could pressure AUD and bond yields lower.
Full Employment Change (Jul) – 01:30 UTC
- Prev: –38.2K
- Impact: Growth in full-time jobs is a stronger positive signal than headline employment.
Unemployment Rate (Jul) – 01:30 UTC
- Forecast: 4.2% (Prev. 4.3%)
- Impact: A decline would indicate labor market resilience, bullish for AUD.
Europe – Eurozone GDP & Industry
GDP (YoY/QoQ, Q2) – 09:00 UTC
- Forecast: 1.4% YoY & 0.1% QoQ (Prev. same)
- Impact: Steady growth keeps ECB on a neutral stance; any surprise slowdown could weigh on EUR.
Industrial Production (MoM, Jun) – 09:00 UTC
- Forecast: –0.9% (Prev. 1.7%)
- Impact: Weak production may signal cooling demand, bearish for EUR.
Eurogroup Meetings – 10:00 UTC
- Impact: Policy remarks from finance ministers may influence EUR sentiment.
United States – Labor & Inflation Data
Continuing Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC
- Prev: 1,974K
- Impact: Rising claims indicate a softening labor market; could support Fed easing bets.
Initial Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC
- Forecast: 220K (Prev. 226K)
- Impact: Lower claims show labor market stability; could reduce rate-cut expectations.
Core PPI (MoM, Jul) – 12:30 UTC
- Forecast: 0.2% (Prev. 0.0%)
- Impact: Higher producer prices can raise inflation expectations.
PPI (MoM, Jul) – 12:30 UTC
- Forecast: 0.2% (Prev. 0.0%)
- Impact: Matches headline price growth; stronger numbers could push yields higher.
Fed’s Balance Sheet – 20:30 UTC
- Prev: $6,641B
- Impact: Ongoing balance sheet size influences liquidity conditions.
New Zealand – Manufacturing PMI
Business NZ PMI (Jul) – 22:30 UTC
- Prev: 48.8
- Impact: Below 50 signals contraction; improvement supports NZD.
Japan – GDP Data
GDP (YoY, Q2) – 23:50 UTC
- Forecast: 0.4% (Prev. –0.2%)
- Impact: Return to growth is JPY-positive, especially if led by domestic demand.
GDP (QoQ, Q2) – 23:50 UTC
- Forecast: 0.1% (Prev. 0.0%)
GDP Price Index (YoY, Q2) – 23:50 UTC
- Forecast: 3.1% (Prev. 3.3%)
- Impact: Lower price index suggests easing inflationary pressures.
Market Impact Analysis
- Asia-Pacific: Strong AU jobs data could rally AUD; weak figures would reverse gains. Japan’s GDP rebound could strengthen JPY.
- Europe: Flat GDP but falling industrial output may pressure EUR.
- U.S.: PPI + jobless claims will shape inflation and labor narratives ahead of CPI/PCE; hotter PPI could spike yields.
- Late Session: NZ PMI and Japan GDP could cause Asia FX volatility in overnight trading.
Overall Impact Score: 8/10
- High data density with cross-market influence: AU jobs, US PPI/claims, Japan GDP.
