Upcoming economic events 13 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)	0.9%	0.8%
08:00		2 points	European Central Bank Non-monetary Policy Meeting	———	———
13:30		2 points	Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)	3.3%	3.3%
13:30		2 points	Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)	0.3%	0.3%
13:30		2 points	CPI (MoM) (Oct)	0.2%	0.2%
13:30		2 points	CPI (YoY) (Oct)	2.6%	2.4%
13:30		2 points	FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks	———	———
14:30		2 points	FOMC Member Williams Speaks	———	———
17:00		2 points	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook	———	———
19:00		2 points	Federal Budget Balance (Oct)	-226.4B	64.0B
21:30		2 points	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	———	3.132M

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 13, 2024

1. Australia Wage Price Index (QoQ) (Q3) (00:30 UTC):
   Measures quarterly changes in Australian wages, an indicator of inflationary pressures. Forecast: 0.9%, Previous: 0.8%. Higher wage growth would support the AUD by signaling strong labor market conditions, potentially influencing RBA policy.
2. ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting (08:00 UTC):
   A meeting focused on non-monetary policy topics, which may still provide insights into ECB views on economic and regulatory matters. Limited immediate impact on the EUR unless significant economic issues are discussed.
3. US Core CPI & CPI (YoY & MoM) (Oct) (13:30 UTC):

• Core CPI (YoY): Forecast: 3.3%, Previous: 3.3%.
• Core CPI (MoM): Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.3%.
• CPI (MoM): Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.2%.
• CPI (YoY): Forecast: 2.6%, Previous: 2.4%.
  Stable or rising inflation figures would support the USD by indicating persistent price pressures, potentially increasing the likelihood of future Fed rate hikes. A decline could suggest easing inflation, reducing pressure on the Fed.

1. FOMC Members Kashkari & Williams Speak (13:30 & 14:30 UTC):
   Remarks from Neel Kashkari and John Williams may provide additional guidance on the Fed’s outlook for inflation and economic growth. Hawkish commentary would support the USD, while dovish tones may weigh on it.
2. EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (17:00 UTC):
   Monthly energy outlook from the US Energy Information Administration, detailing energy market forecasts, which can influence oil prices and energy-linked currencies.
3. US Federal Budget Balance (Oct) (19:00 UTC):
   Measures the federal government’s budget surplus or deficit. Forecast: -$226.4B, Previous: $64.0B. A larger deficit would indicate higher government spending relative to revenue, potentially affecting the USD by increasing debt concerns.
4. API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30 UTC):
   Tracks weekly changes in US crude oil inventories. Previous: 3.132M. A decline in inventories would signal strong demand, potentially supporting oil prices, while a build would suggest weaker demand, putting pressure on prices.

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Market Impact Analysis

• Australia Wage Price Index:
  Higher-than-expected wage growth would support the AUD by indicating inflationary pressures in the labor market, which may prompt further RBA tightening. Lower wage growth would suggest softer inflation, potentially weighing on the AUD.
• US CPI Data:
  Stable or rising CPI figures would reinforce inflationary concerns, supporting the USD by increasing the likelihood of a hawkish Fed stance. Weaker inflation data would reduce pressure on the Fed, potentially softening the USD.
• FOMC Speeches (Kashkari & Williams):
  Hawkish remarks would support the USD by suggesting further Fed tightening, while dovish commentary may signal caution, potentially weakening the currency.
• EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook & API Crude Oil Stock:
  Forecasts of tighter supply or increased demand in the EIA report would support oil prices. The API inventory data also influences oil prices, with a larger-than-expected drawdown supporting prices.
• US Federal Budget Balance:
  A larger deficit may weigh on the USD by raising fiscal sustainability concerns, while a smaller deficit would suggest fiscal improvement, supporting the currency.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, driven by significant US inflation data (CPI), wage data from Australia, and FOMC speeches that will influence currency and commodity markets.

Impact Score: 7/10, with the CPI report and Fed commentary likely to set the tone for USD direction, while energy data and budget balance updates will also impact sentiment.