Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 01:30 |  | 2 points | Building Approvals (MoM) (Mar) | -8.8% | -0.3% |
| 01:30 | | 2 points | NAB Business Confidence (Apr) | ———- | -3 |
| 09:00 |  | 2 points | ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) | -4.4 | -18.5 |
| 12:30 |  | 3 points | Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) | ———- | 2.8% |
| 12:30 | | 3 points | CPI (MoM) (Apr) | 0.3% | -0.1% |
| 12:30 | | 3 points | CPI (YoY) (Apr) | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | ———- | -4.490M |
| 22:45 |  | 2 points | Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | ———- | -0.8% |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on May 13, 2025
Australia (🇦🇺)
- Building Approvals (MoM) (Mar) (01:30 UTC)
- Forecast: –8.8% | Previous: –0.3%
- Market Impact:
- A sharp drop in approvals points to a weakening housing sector, potentially weighing on AUD and domestic construction stocks.
- NAB Business Confidence (Apr) (01:30 UTC)
- Previous: –3
- Market Impact:
- Measures corporate sentiment: a further decline would signal soft demand, pressuring the AUD and equity sentiment.
Eurozone (🇪🇺)
- ZEW Economic Sentiment (May) (09:00 UTC)
- Forecast: –4.4 | Previous: –18.5
- Market Impact:
- Improved sentiment—though still negative—could lend support to the EUR, as investors see less pessimism about the euro-area outlook.
United States (🇺🇸)
- Core CPI (MoM) (Apr) (12:30 UTC)
- Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.1%
- Market Impact:
- A hotter-than-expected print may boost rate-hike expectations, strengthening the USD and pressuring bond yields.
- Core CPI (YoY) (Apr) (12:30 UTC)
- Previous: 2.8%
- Market Impact:
- Sticky core inflation near the Fed’s 2% goal could influence Fed policy outlook and dollar positioning.
- CPI (MoM) & (YoY) (Apr) (12:30 UTC)
- MoM Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: –0.1%
- YoY: 2.4% | Previous: 2.4%
- Market Impact:
- Broad CPI rising as expected supports a firm Fed stance, likely buoying the USD and bond yields.
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (20:30 UTC)
- Previous: –4.49 M barrels
- Market Impact:
- A surprise build/smaller draw in inventories can pressure oil prices, impacting energy stocks and CAD/AUD crosses.
New Zealand (🇳🇿)
- Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) (22:45 UTC)
- Previous: –0.8%
- Market Impact:
- Retail sales gauge household spending; a continued slump could weigh on the NZD and rate-cut expectations.
Market Impact Analysis
- AUD & NZD: Sensitive to domestic data (housing approvals, business/confidence, retail sales).
- EUR: May find support if sentiment metrics continue to recover.
- USD: Key focus on CPI; stronger inflation prints reinforce a hawkish Fed and underpin the dollar.
- Oil Prices: API report can trigger short-term volatility in crude and related currencies (CAD, AUD).
Overall Impact Score: 6/10
Key Focus: U.S. inflation data and global risk sentiment shifts from sentiment surveys and inventory reports.
