Upcoming economic events 12 September 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	NAB Business Confidence	———	1
06:25		2 points	ECB McCaul Speaks	———	———
07:25		2 points	ECB’s Supervisory Board Member Jochnick Speaks	———	———
08:00		2 points	IEA Monthly Report	———	———
11:00		2 points	New Loans (Aug)	810.0B	260.0B
12:15		3 points	Deposit Facility Rate (Sep)	3.50%	3.75%
12:15		2 points	ECB Marginal Lending Facility	———	4.50%
12:15		2 points	ECB Monetary Policy Statement	———	———
12:15		3 points	ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep)	3.65%	4.25%
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,850K	1,838K
12:30		2 points	Core PPI (MoM) (Aug)	0.2%	0.0%
12:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	227K	227K
12:30		3 points	PPI (MoM) (Aug)	0.1%	0.1%
12:45		3 points	ECB Press Conference	———	———
14:15		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———	———
16:00		2 points	WASDE Report	———	———
17:00		3 points	30-Year Bond Auction	———	4.314%
18:00		2 points	Federal Budget Balance (Aug)	-285.7B	-244.0B
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———	7,113B
22:30		2 points	Business NZ PMI (Aug)	———	44.0

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on September 12, 2024

1. Australia NAB Business Confidence (01:30 UTC): Measures business sentiment in Australia. Previous: 1.
2. ECB McCaul Speaks (06:25 UTC): Remarks from ECB Supervisory Board member McCaul, potentially offering insights into financial regulation or economic outlook.
3. ECB’s Supervisory Board Member Jochnick Speaks (07:25 UTC): Additional ECB commentary from Kerstin Jochnick.
4. US IEA Monthly Report (08:00 UTC): The International Energy Agency’s monthly report, offering insights on global energy markets.
5. China New Loans (Aug) (11:00 UTC): Measures the total value of new loans issued by Chinese banks. Forecast: 810.0B, Previous: 260.0B.
6. ECB Deposit Facility Rate (Sep) (12:15 UTC): Interest rate paid on overnight deposits at the ECB. Forecast: 3.50%, Previous: 3.75%.
7. ECB Marginal Lending Facility (12:15 UTC): Interest rate for overnight loans to banks from the ECB. Previous: 4.50%.
8. ECB Monetary Policy Statement (12:15 UTC): Statement providing details on the ECB’s economic outlook and monetary policy decisions.
9. ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep) (12:15 UTC): Decision on the key ECB interest rate. Forecast: 3.65%, Previous: 4.25%.
10. US Continuing Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC): Number of people receiving unemployment benefits. Forecast: 1,850K, Previous: 1,838K.
11. US Core PPI (MoM) (Aug) (12:30 UTC): Monthly change in producer prices, excluding food and energy. Forecast: +0.2%, Previous: 0.0%.
12. US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC): Number of new unemployment claims. Forecast: 227K, Previous: 227K.
13. US PPI (MoM) (Aug) (12:30 UTC): Monthly change in producer prices. Forecast: +0.1%, Previous: +0.1%.
14. ECB Press Conference (12:45 UTC): ECB President Christine Lagarde discusses the rationale behind monetary policy decisions.
15. US WASDE Report (16:00 UTC): USDA’s monthly report on global supply and demand for major agricultural products.
16. US 30-Year Bond Auction (17:00 UTC): Auction of 30-year US Treasury bonds. Previous Yield: 4.314%.
17. US Federal Budget Balance (Aug) (18:00 UTC): Monthly report on the US government’s fiscal deficit or surplus. Forecast: -285.7B, Previous: -244.0B.
18. Fed’s Balance Sheet (20:30 UTC): Weekly update on the Federal Reserve’s assets and liabilities. Previous: 7,113B.
19. New Zealand Business NZ PMI (Aug) (22:30 UTC): Measures activity in New Zealand’s manufacturing sector. Previous: 44.0.

Market Impact Analysis

• Australia NAB Business Confidence: A higher reading indicates stronger business sentiment, which supports AUD. A decline could signal economic caution.
• ECB Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference: A change in rates or signals on future policy could significantly impact EUR. Higher-than-expected rates might support EUR, while dovish comments from Lagarde could weigh on it.
• US Jobless Claims & PPI: Higher jobless claims may signal a weakening labor market, potentially weakening USD. Stable or increasing PPI suggests rising inflation, which could influence Fed policy expectations and affect USD.
• China New Loans: A significant increase supports economic growth and demand, which can impact global commodity markets and CNY.
• US 30-Year Bond Auction: The auction result will affect bond yields and investor sentiment. Strong demand lowers yields, while weak demand may raise them.

Overall Impact

• Volatility: High, particularly around the ECB rate decision and US inflation data.
• Impact Score: 8/10, with strong potential for market movements across currencies, bonds, and commodities.