Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 09:00 |  | 2 points | ECB’s Schnabel Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 12:00 | | 2 points | ECB’s De Guindos Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 12:20 | | 2 points | ECB’s Schnabel Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 12:30 |  | 2 points | Continuing Jobless Claims | ———- | 1,904K |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Core PPI (MoM) (May) | 0.3% | -0.4% |
| 12:30 | | 3 points | Initial Jobless Claims | 241K | 247K |
| 12:30 | | 3 points | PPI (MoM) (May) | 0.2% | -0.5% |
| 14:15 | | 2 points | ECB’s Elderson Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 16:00 | | 2 points | WASDE Report | ———- | ———- |
| 17:00 | | 3 points | 30-Year Bond Auction | ———- | 4.819% |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | Fed’s Balance Sheet | ———- | 6,673B |
| 22:30 |  | 2 points | Business NZ PMI (May) | ———- | 53.9 |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on June 12, 2025
Eurozone
1. ECB Speakers: Schnabel, De Guindos, Elderson – 09:00, 12:00, 12:20, 14:15 UTC
- Market Impact:
- Focus will be on their post-rate cut guidance.
- Hawkish remarks could strengthen EUR and lift European yields.
- Dovish tone may reinforce further easing bias, pressuring EUR and supporting equities.
United States
2. Initial Jobless Claims (Jun 7) – 12:30 UTC
- Forecast: 241K | Previous: 247K
3. Continuing Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC
- Previous: 1,904K
- Market Impact:
- Labor market stability or weakness will influence Fed rate path.
- A decline in claims may limit Fed easing expectations; an increase could support dovish market positioning.
4. PPI & Core PPI (MoM) (May) – 12:30 UTC
- Forecast PPI: +0.2% | Previous: -0.5%
- Forecast Core PPI: +0.3% | Previous: -0.4%
- Market Impact:
- After CPI, PPI gives further insight into upstream inflation pressures.
- Stronger-than-expected readings may tighten financial conditions; softer prints would support Fed doves.
5. WASDE Report (USDA) – 16:00 UTC
- Market Impact:
- May affect agriculture commodities (corn, wheat, soybeans), influencing commodity-linked currencies (AUD, CAD).
- Indirect impact on global inflation expectations.
6. 30-Year Bond Auction – 17:00 UTC
- Previous Yield: 4.819%
- Market Impact:
- Long-end demand reflects investor confidence in long-term inflation and debt sustainability.
- Weak demand could lift long-term yields, pressuring equities and risk assets.
7. Fed’s Balance Sheet – 20:30 UTC
- Previous: $6.673T
- Market Impact:
- Continued decline indicates liquidity tightening.
- Stabilization or expansion may suggest a pause in QT, marginally supportive of risk sentiment.
New Zealand
8. Business NZ PMI (May) – 22:30 UTC
- Previous: 53.9
- Market Impact:
- Readings above 50 indicate expansion.
- A stronger print could support NZD; a sharp drop may trigger concerns over growth slowdown.
Market Impact Analysis
- U.S. PPI and jobless claims will take center stage following the CPI report a day earlier.
- ECB officials’ speeches provide ongoing Eurozone policy clarity post-cut.
- The WASDE report could move commodities and inflation-sensitive markets.
- The 30-year bond auction will be closely watched for any signs of investor concerns over U.S. fiscal policy.
Overall Impact Score: 8/10
Key Focus:
This session will continue the market’s reaction to U.S. inflation data with additional pressure from PPI and jobless claims. The combination of ECB commentary, U.S. data, the bond auction, and commodities outlook makes this another high-volatility trading day for USD, EUR, Treasuries, commodities, and risk assets.
