Upcoming economic events 12 December 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	Employment Change (Nov)	26.0K	15.9K
00:30		2 points	Full Employment Change (Nov)	———	9.7K
00:30		2 points	Unemployment Rate (Nov)	4.2%	4.1%
09:00		2 points	IEA Monthly Report	———	———
13:15		2 points	Deposit Facility Rate (Dec)	3.00%	3.25%
13:15		2 points	ECB Marginal Lending Facility	———	3.65%
13:15		2 points	ECB Monetary Policy Statement	———	———
13:15		2 points	ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec)	3.15%	3.40%
13:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,880K	1,871K
13:30		2 points	Core PPI (MoM) (Nov)	0.2%	0.3%
13:30		2 points	Initial Jobless Claims	221K	224K
13:30		2 points	PPI (MoM) (Nov)	0.2%	0.2%
13:45		2 points	ECB Press Conference	———	———
15:15		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———	———
18:00		2 points	30-Year Bond Auction	———	4.608%
21:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———	6,896B
21:30		2 points	Business NZ PMI (Nov)	———	45.8
23:50		2 points	Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX (Q4)	9.6%	10.6%
23:50		2 points	Tankan Big Manufacturing Outlook Index (Q4)	———	14
23:50		2 points	Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q4)	13	13
23:50		2 points	Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (Q4)	33	34

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 12, 2024

1. Australia Employment Data (Nov) (00:30 UTC):
   • Employment Change: Forecast: 26.0K, Previous: 15.9K.
   • Full Employment Change: Previous: 9.7K.
   • Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 4.2%, Previous: 4.1%.
     Strong employment growth or stable unemployment would signal a resilient labor market, supporting the AUD. Weak data could weigh on the currency by highlighting economic challenges.
2. IEA Monthly Report (09:00 UTC):
   Updates on global energy supply and demand trends. Insights into production or demand forecasts can influence oil prices and commodity-linked currencies like CAD and AUD.
3. Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision & Policy Updates (13:15–13:45 UTC):
   • Deposit Facility Rate: Forecast: 3.00%, Previous: 3.25%.
   • Interest Rate Decision: Forecast: 3.15%, Previous: 3.40%.
   • ECB Press Conference (13:45) & Lagarde Speech (15:15):
     Hawkish decisions or remarks would support the EUR, signaling ongoing inflation concerns. Dovish moves could weaken the currency by suggesting a slowdown in tightening.
4. US Labor Market & Producer Inflation Data (13:30 UTC):
   • Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast: 221K, Previous: 224K.
   • Continuing Jobless Claims: Forecast: 1,880K, Previous: 1,871K.
   • Core PPI (MoM): Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.3%.
   • PPI (MoM): Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.2%.
     Stable or declining PPI would signal easing inflationary pressures, potentially softening the USD. A strong labor market would reinforce USD strength.
5. US 30-Year Bond Auction (18:00 UTC):
   • Previous Yield: 4.608%.
     Rising yields would support the USD by reflecting higher inflation expectations or increased demand for government debt.
6. New Zealand Business PMI (Nov) (21:30 UTC):
   • Previous: 45.8.
     PMI below 50 signals contraction in the manufacturing sector. A further decline would weigh on the NZD, while improvement would signal recovery.
7. Japan Tankan Survey (Q4) (23:50 UTC):
   • Tankan All Big Industry CAPEX: Forecast: 9.6%, Previous: 10.6%.
   • Tankan Large Manufacturers Index: Forecast: 13, Previous: 13.
   • Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index: Forecast: 33, Previous: 34.
     Indicates business sentiment and capital expenditure. Strong readings support the JPY by signaling optimism, while weaker results may weigh on the currency.

Market Impact Analysis

• Australia Employment Data:
  Strong employment figures or stable unemployment rates would support the AUD, signaling economic resilience. Weak data would weigh on the currency.
• ECB Decision & Lagarde Speech:
  Hawkish ECB policies or rhetoric would support the EUR, reflecting inflation concerns and policy tightening. Dovish remarks or rate cuts would weaken the EUR.
• US Labor & Inflation Data:
  Lower jobless claims and stable PPI would reinforce USD strength by indicating a strong labor market and manageable inflation. Higher claims or weaker PPI figures might soften the USD.
• Japan Tankan Survey:
  Strong sentiment or CAPEX growth would support the JPY, reflecting business confidence. Declines would suggest economic challenges, weighing on the currency.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, with critical decisions from the ECB, key labor and inflation data from the US, and employment trends in Australia driving movements in the AUD, EUR, and USD.

Impact Score: 8/10, influenced by ECB rate decisions, US labor and inflation data, and manufacturing sentiment from Japan and New Zealand.