Upcoming economic events 11 September  2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
08:00		2 points	IEA Monthly Report	———-	———-
11:00		2 points	OPEC Monthly Report	———-	———-
12:15		2 points	Deposit Facility Rate (Sep)	2.00%	2.00%
12:15		2 points	ECB Marginal Lending Facility	———-	2.40%
12:15		2 points	ECB Monetary Policy Statement	———-	———-
12:15		2 points	ECB Interest Rate Decision (Sep)	2.15%	2.15%
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	———-	1,940K
12:30		2 points	Core CPI (MoM) (Aug)	0.3%	0.3%
12:30		2 points	Core CPI (YoY) (Aug)	———-	3.1%
12:30		2 points	CPI (MoM) (Aug)	0.3%	0.2%
12:30		2 points	CPI (YoY) (Aug)	2.9%	2.7%
12:30		2 points	Initial Jobless Claims	234K	237K
12:45		2 points	ECB Press Conference	———-	———-
14:15		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———-	———-
17:00		2 points	30-Year Bond Auction	———-	4.813%
18:00		2 points	Federal Budget Balance (Aug)	-305.7B	-291.0B
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———-	6,602B
22:30		2 points	Business NZ PMI (Aug)	———-	52.8
22:45		2 points	Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)	———-	0.2%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on September 11, 2025

Energy Markets – IEA & OPEC Reports

• IEA Monthly Report – 08:00 UTC
• OPEC Monthly Report – 11:00 UTC
• Impact: Both reports will update demand/supply outlooks for oil.
  • Bullish revisions (higher demand, lower supply) → higher crude prices, stronger CAD/NOK, and energy equities.
  • Bearish revisions → pressure on oil and risk sentiment.

Europe – ECB Policy Decisions

ECB Rate Decision (Sep) – 12:15 UTC

• Deposit Facility Rate: 2.00% (same)
• Main Rate: 2.15% (same)
• Impact: No change expected. Market focus shifts to:
  • ECB Monetary Policy Statement & Lagarde’s Press Conference (12:45 & 14:15 UTC).
  • Hawkish tone → EUR support, bond yields up.
  • Dovish tone → EUR softens, equities may rally.

United States – Inflation, Labor & Bonds

CPI Data (Aug) – 12:30 UTC

• Core CPI (MoM): 0.3% (same)
• CPI (YoY): 2.9% (prev 2.7%)
• Impact:
  • Hotter CPI → Fed hawkishness revived, USD up, yields rise, equities pressured.
  • Softer CPI → USD weaker, equities up, bonds rally.

Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC

• Initial: 234K (prev 237K)
• Continuing: ~1.94M (prev 1.94M)
• Impact: Stable claims = labor market resilience → reduces Fed’s room to ease. Spike higher would support dovish expectations.

30-Year Bond Auction – 17:00 UTC

• Previous Yield: 4.813%
• Impact: Key long-term borrowing cost measure. Weak demand → higher yields, pressure on equities. Strong demand → relief rally in bonds and equities.

Federal Budget Balance (Aug) – 18:00 UTC

• Forecast: -305.7B (prev -291B)
• Impact: Large deficits → long-term debt concerns, could weigh on bonds & USD sentiment.

Fed Balance Sheet – 20:30 UTC

• Previous: $6,602B
• Impact: Shrinkage supports tight liquidity, expansion would signal easing.

New Zealand – Business Conditions

Business NZ PMI (Aug) – 22:30 UTC

• Previous: 52.8
• Impact: Above 50 = expansion, supportive for NZD. Weakening trend would hurt NZD sentiment.

Electronic Card Retail Sales (Aug) – 22:45 UTC

• Previous: +0.2%
• Impact: Reflects consumer demand strength; upside supports NZD.

Market Impact Analysis

• Energy: IEA & OPEC could drive oil volatility early.
• ECB: Rate decision likely steady, but Lagarde’s tone will set EUR direction.
• U.S.: CPI is the key market driver of the day. Bond auctions and fiscal deficit reinforce Treasury yield dynamics.
• NZ: Secondary impact, but retail data may move NZD in Asian trade.

Overall Impact Score: 9/10

• Why: U.S. CPI, ECB policy decisions, and oil market updates create a triple-driver day for FX, equities, bonds, and commodities.