Upcoming economic events 11 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
12:30		2 points	Core PPI (MoM) (Sep)	0.2%	0.3%
12:30		3 points	PPI (MoM) (Sep)	0.1%	0.2%
14:00		2 points	Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct)	———	2.7%
14:00		2 points	Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct)	———	3.1%
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Expectations (Oct)	75.0	74.4
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct)	70.9	70.1
16:00		2 points	WASDE Report	———	———
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———	479
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———	585
17:10		2 points	FOMC Member Bowman Speaks	———	———
18:00		2 points	Federal Budget Balance (Sep)	61.0B	-380.0B
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———	159.6K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———	299.9K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———	16.1K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———	7.5K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———	14.5K
19:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———	56.8K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———	55.3K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 11, 2024

1. US Core PPI (MoM) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Measures the change in prices received by producers for goods and services, excluding food and energy. Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.3%. A lower reading could ease inflation concerns.
2. US PPI (MoM) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   The overall Producer Price Index, which tracks changes in the prices producers receive for their goods and services. Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.2%. A slower increase in prices may reduce inflationary pressures.
3. US Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct) (14:00 UTC):
   Tracks consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next year. Previous: 2.7%. A higher expectation could signal rising inflationary concerns.
4. US Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct) (14:00 UTC):
   Reflects consumers’ expectations for inflation over the next five years. Previous: 3.1%. Long-term expectations are crucial for gauging inflationary outlooks.
5. US Michigan Consumer Expectations (Oct) (14:00 UTC):
   Measures consumers’ outlook on future economic conditions. Forecast: 75.0, Previous: 74.4. A higher number suggests greater optimism.
6. US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) (14:00 UTC):
   Assesses consumer confidence in the economy. Forecast: 70.9, Previous: 70.1. Strong sentiment indicates higher consumer spending potential.
7. US WASDE Report (16:00 UTC):
   The USDA’s “World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates” report, which provides insights into agricultural production and demand forecasts, affecting commodity markets.
8. US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count (17:00 UTC):
   Tracks the number of active oil rigs in the US. Previous: 479. A rising count signals increased oil production.
9. US Baker Hughes Total Rig Count (17:00 UTC):
   Measures the total number of oil and gas rigs in the US. Previous: 585. A higher count suggests greater energy sector activity.
10. FOMC Member Bowman Speaks (17:10 UTC):
    Remarks from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman may provide insights into the Fed’s views on inflation, economic growth, and future interest rate decisions.
11. US Federal Budget Balance (Sep) (18:00 UTC):
    The difference between the US government’s revenue and expenditure. Forecast: $61.0B, Previous: -$380.0B. A positive balance indicates a budget surplus, which may support the USD.
12. CFTC Crude Oil Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Tracks the net long or short positions in crude oil held by traders. Previous: 159.6K. A rise in net long positions suggests bullish sentiment in oil markets.
13. CFTC Gold Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Reflects speculative positions in gold futures. Previous: 299.9K. More net long positions may indicate growing demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
14. CFTC Nasdaq 100 Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Measures net speculative positions in Nasdaq 100 futures. Previous: 16.1K. Increased long positions reflect confidence in tech stocks.
15. CFTC S&P 500 Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Tracks speculative sentiment in S&P 500 futures. Previous: 7.5K. A shift toward more long positions may indicate rising optimism in the US equity market.
16. CFTC AUD Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Measures speculative positions in the Australian dollar. Previous: 14.5K. A rise in bullish positions signals stronger sentiment for the AUD.
17. CFTC JPY Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Reflects speculative sentiment in the Japanese yen. Previous: 56.8K. A rise in net long positions suggests increased demand for the JPY.
18. CFTC EUR Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    Tracks speculative positions in euro futures. Previous: 55.3K. Higher long positions indicate optimism for the EUR.

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Market Impact Analysis

• US PPI & Core PPI Data (MoM):
  Lower-than-expected PPI data would indicate cooling inflation, reducing pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates further, which could weaken the USD. Higher-than-expected PPI would suggest persistent inflation, strengthening the USD.
• US Michigan Inflation Expectations (1-Year & 5-Year):
  Higher inflation expectations could elevate concerns over rising prices and support the case for additional Fed tightening, which would strengthen the USD. Lower expectations may reduce such concerns, weakening the USD.
• US Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Expectations:
  Stronger sentiment would indicate increased consumer confidence, likely boosting spending, which could support the USD. Weaker readings would suggest consumers are more cautious, potentially weakening the USD.
• WASDE Report:
  Significant changes in agricultural supply and demand forecasts could impact commodity markets, particularly for grains, soybeans, and livestock, influencing both producers and traders.
• Baker Hughes Rig Counts:
  Higher rig counts signal increased oil and gas production, which could put downward pressure on oil prices, while lower counts may indicate tighter supply, supporting prices.
• FOMC Member Bowman Speech & Federal Budget Balance:
  Hawkish remarks from Bowman or a strong federal budget surplus would support the USD by signaling fiscal and monetary strength. A larger deficit or dovish remarks would likely weigh on the USD.
• CFTC Speculative Positions (Crude Oil, Gold, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, AUD, JPY, EUR):
  Changes in speculative positioning offer insights into market sentiment. Increased long positions in risk assets (equities, crude oil) suggest bullishness, while higher positions in safe havens (gold, JPY) may indicate rising risk aversion.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate, with key US inflation data, consumer sentiment, and speculative positioning reports potentially driving market movements. The PPI data will be especially critical in shaping expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.

Impact Score: 7/10, with significant attention on US inflation figures, consumer sentiment, and speculative market positioning, which will influence expectations for economic growth and monetary policy adjustments.