Jeremy Oles
Share it!
| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 03:15 |  | 2 points | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 09:30 | | 2 points | ECB’s Lane Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 12:30 |  | 3 points | Core CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Core CPI (YoY) (May) | 2.9% | 2.8% |
| 12:30 | | 3 points | CPI (YoY) (May) | 2.5% | 2.3% |
| 12:30 | | 3 points | CPI (MoM) (May) | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| 14:30 | | 3 points | Crude Oil Inventories | 0.100M | -4.304M |
| 14:30 | | 2 points | Cushing Crude Oil Inventories | ———- | 0.576M |
| 17:00 | | 3 points | 10-Year Note Auction | ———- | 4.342% |
| 18:00 | | 2 points | Federal Budget Balance (May) | -314.3B | 258.0B |
| 22:45 |  | 2 points | Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | ———- | 0.0% |
| 23:50 |  | 2 points | BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q2) | 0.8 | -2.4 |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on June 11, 2025
Eurozone
1. ECB President Lagarde & ECB’s Lane Speak – 03:15 & 09:30 UTC
- Market Impact:
- Key speeches following the June rate cut.
- Comments on inflation trajectory or future rate path may impact EUR and bond yields.
- Hawkish language could provide EUR support, while dovish tones may pressure the euro.
United States
2. CPI & Core CPI (MoM & YoY) (May) – 12:30 UTC
- Forecast CPI (YoY): 2.5% | Previous: 2.3%
- Forecast Core CPI (YoY): 2.9% | Previous: 2.8%
- Forecast CPI (MoM): 0.2% | Previous: 0.2%
- Forecast Core CPI (MoM): 0.3% | Previous: 0.2%
- Market Impact:
- This is the most critical event of the day.
- Any upside surprise, especially in core CPI, may reduce rate cut expectations, strengthening USD and Treasury yields.
- A softer print could support equities and press USD.
3. Crude Oil & Cushing Inventories – 14:30 UTC
- Forecast: +0.100M | Previous: -4.304M
- Market Impact:
- A return to stock builds may cap oil price gains, while another drawdown could support inflation-sensitive assets.
4. 10-Year Note Auction – 17:00 UTC
- Previous Yield: 4.342%
- Market Impact:
- Strong demand supports Treasury market stability; weak demand could signal concerns over long-term inflation or debt levels.
5. Federal Budget Balance (May) – 18:00 UTC
- Forecast: -$314.3B | Previous: +$258.0B
- Market Impact:
- Large deficits could weigh on bond sentiment, especially if inflation remains sticky.
New Zealand
6. Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (May) – 22:45 UTC
- Previous: 0.0%
- Market Impact:
- A rise could suggest improving domestic demand, supporting NZD.
- Weak or negative growth would reinforce economic caution.
Japan
7. BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q2) – 23:50 UTC
- Forecast: +0.8 | Previous: -2.4
- Market Impact:
- Improvement suggests industrial stabilization, supportive for JPY and Japanese equities.
Market Impact Analysis
- All eyes will be on U.S. CPI, as it determines the near-term direction for Fed policy and global asset pricing.
- ECB commentary provides additional insight into Eurozone policy trajectory after the June cut.
- 10-year auction and crude data round out a U.S.-centric trading day, with potential for large moves in USD, yields, and energy markets.
Overall Impact Score: 9/10
Key Focus:
This is a high-impact session centered around U.S. inflation data, with major implications for interest rate expectations, equity markets, and currency dynamics. Additional support comes from ECB speeches, oil inventories, and Japan/NZ data, but CPI will dictate global risk sentiment for the week.
