Upcoming economic events 11 July 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
08:00		2 points	New Loans	2,200.0B	950.0B
09:00		2 points	IEA Monthly Report	———	———
10:00		2 points	Eurogroup Meetings	———	———
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,860K	1,858K
12:30		3 points	Core CPI (MoM) (Jun)	0.2%	0.2%
12:30		2 points	Core CPI (YoY) (Jun)	3.4%	3.4%
12:30		3 points	CPI (MoM) (Jun)	0.1%	0.0%
12:30		3 points	CPI (YoY) (Jun)	3.1%	3.3%
12:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	236K	238K
15:30		2 points	FOMC Member Bostic Speaks	———	———
17:00		3 points	30-Year Bond Auction	———	4.403%
18:00		2 points	Federal Budget Balance (Jun)	-71.2B	-347.0B
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———	7,222B
22:30		2 points	Business NZ PMI (Jun)	———	47.2
22:45		2 points	Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)	———	-1.1%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 11, 2024

1. China New Loans: Monthly change in new loans issued. Forecast: 2,200.0B, Previous: 950.0B.
2. IEA Monthly Report: Insights from the International Energy Agency on global energy markets.
3. Eurogroup Meetings: Discussions by Eurozone finance ministers on economic policies.
4. US Continuing Jobless Claims: Number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits. Forecast: 1,860K, Previous: 1,858K.
5. US Core CPI (MoM) (Jun): Monthly change in the core consumer price index. Forecast: +0.2%, Previous: +0.2%.
6. US Core CPI (YoY) (Jun): Annual change in the core consumer price index. Forecast: +3.4%, Previous: +3.4%.
7. US CPI (MoM) (Jun): Monthly change in the consumer price index. Forecast: +0.1%, Previous: 0.0%.
8. US CPI (YoY) (Jun): Annual change in the consumer price index. Forecast: +3.1%, Previous: +3.3%.
9. US Initial Jobless Claims: Number of new unemployment claims. Forecast: 236K, Previous: 238K.
10. FOMC Member Bostic Speaks: Insights into the Federal Reserve’s policy stance.
11. US 30-Year Bond Auction: Reflects investor demand for U.S. 30-year Treasuries. Previous: 4.403%.
12. US Federal Budget Balance (Jun): Difference between government revenue and expenditure. Forecast: -71.2B, Previous: -347.0B.
13. Fed’s Balance Sheet: Weekly update on the Federal Reserve’s assets and liabilities. Previous: 7,222B.
14. New Zealand Business NZ PMI (Jun): Measures manufacturing activity. Previous: 47.2.
15. New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun): Monthly change in electronic retail card spending. Previous: -1.1%.

Market Impact Analysis

• China New Loans: A significant increase in new loans can boost economic activity, positively affecting the yuan (CNY) and local markets.
• IEA Monthly Report: Provides insights on energy supply and demand, impacting oil prices and energy stocks.
• Eurogroup Meetings: Expected discussions maintain stability; surprises could affect Eurozone markets.
• US Continuing Jobless Claims: Stable claims indicate a steady job market; unexpected increases could signal economic weakness.
• US Core CPI (MoM and YoY): Stable or rising inflation supports confidence in USD; higher-than-expected figures may raise inflation concerns.
• US CPI (MoM and YoY): Lower CPI indicates cooling inflation, potentially impacting USD and equities.
• US Initial Jobless Claims: Stable or lower claims suggest a strong labor market; higher claims could signal economic issues.
• FOMC Member Bostic: Dovish comments reassure markets; hawkish remarks increase volatility.
• US 30-Year Bond Auction: Strong demand supports bonds and lowers yields; weak demand raises yields and impacts equities.
• US Federal Budget Balance: Smaller deficit than expected supports confidence; larger deficit could raise concerns.
• Fed’s Balance Sheet: Reflects the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance and market interventions.
• New Zealand Business NZ PMI: Higher PMI indicates growth in manufacturing; lower PMI suggests contraction, impacting NZD.
• New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales: Increase indicates strong consumer spending; decline suggests weaker consumption, affecting NZD.

Overall Impact

• Volatility: High, with significant potential reactions in equity, bond, and currency markets.
• Impact Score: 7/10, indicating a high potential for market movements.