Upcoming economic events 11 December 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
10:00		2 points	OPEC Monthly Report	———	———
12:00		2 points	OPEC Monthly Report	———	———
13:30		3 points	Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)	0.3%	0.3%
13:30		2 points	Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)	3.3%	3.3%
13:30		3 points	CPI (YoY) (Nov)	2.7%	2.6%
13:30		3 points	CPI (MoM) (Nov)	0.3%	0.2%
15:30		3 points	Crude Oil Inventories	———	-5.073M
15:30		2 points	Cushing Crude Oil Inventories	———	0.050M
18:00		3 points	10-Year Note Auction	———	4.347%
19:00		2 points	Federal Budget Balance (Nov)	-325.0B	-257.0B
21:45		2 points	Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)	———	0.6%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 11, 2024

1. OPEC Monthly Reports (10:00 & 12:00 UTC):
   Provides updated insights into global oil demand, supply trends, and production levels. Changes in production targets or demand forecasts significantly impact crude oil prices, influencing commodity-linked currencies like CAD and AUD.
2. US Inflation Data (Nov) (13:30 UTC):
   • Core CPI (MoM): Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.3%.
   • Core CPI (YoY): Forecast: 3.3%, Previous: 3.3%.
   • CPI (MoM): Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.2%.
   • CPI (YoY): Forecast: 2.7%, Previous: 2.6%.
     Inflation data is crucial for assessing the Fed’s monetary policy direction.
   • Market Impact:
     • Higher-than-expected inflation would reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy, supporting the USD.
     • Weaker inflation would suggest easing price pressures, potentially weighing on the USD.
3. US Crude Oil Inventories (15:30 UTC):
   • Previous: -5.073M.
     A drawdown indicates strong demand, supporting oil prices and commodity-linked currencies. A build would suggest weaker demand, pressuring prices.
4. US 10-Year Note Auction (18:00 UTC):
   • Previous Yield: 4.347%.
     Rising yields indicate stronger inflation expectations or increased demand for returns, supporting the USD.
5. US Federal Budget Balance (Nov) (19:00 UTC):
   • Forecast: -325.0B, Previous: -257.0B.
     Reflects government spending and revenue. A widening deficit could weigh on the USD by highlighting fiscal imbalances.
6. New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) (21:45 UTC):
   • Previous: 0.6%.
     Measures consumer spending through electronic card transactions. Growth would signal strong consumer demand, supporting the NZD. Decline suggests caution among consumers, potentially weighing on the currency.

Market Impact Analysis

• OPEC Monthly Reports:
  Optimistic demand forecasts or reduced supply expectations would support oil prices, benefiting commodity-linked currencies like CAD. Bearish revisions would pressure prices.
• US Inflation Data:
  Higher inflation figures would boost the USD by reinforcing rate hike expectations. Softer inflation would suggest a reduced need for tightening, weighing on the currency.
• Crude Oil Inventories & 10-Year Auction:
  A crude oil drawdown would support oil prices and energy-linked currencies. Rising 10-year note yields would attract investment into the USD, reinforcing its strength.
• New Zealand Retail Sales:
  Strong growth in card transactions would indicate resilient consumer spending, supporting the NZD. Weak data might weigh on the currency.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, driven by key US inflation data, crude oil inventories, and OPEC insights shaping commodity and currency markets.

Impact Score: 8/10, with inflation metrics, oil market updates, and fiscal data driving USD, CAD, and NZD movements.