Upcoming economic events 10 October 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	Building Approvals (MoM) (Aug)	-6.1%	11.0%
11:30		2 points	ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting	———	———
12:30		2 points	Continuing Jobless Claims	1,830K	1,826K
12:30		3 points	Core CPI (MoM) (Sep)	0.2%	0.3%
12:30		2 points	Core CPI (YoY) (Sep)	3.2%	3.2%
12:30		3 points	CPI (MoM) (Sep)	0.1%	0.2%
12:30		3 points	CPI (YoY) (Sep)	2.3%	2.5%
12:30		3 points	Initial Jobless Claims	231K	225K
15:00		2 points	FOMC Member Williams Speaks	———	———
17:00		3 points	30-Year Bond Auction	———	4.015%
18:00		2 points	Federal Budget Balance (Sep)	———	-380.0B
20:30		2 points	Fed’s Balance Sheet	———	7,047B
21:30		2 points	Business NZ PMI (Sep)	———	45.8

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on October 10, 2024

1. Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Aug) (00:30 UTC):
   Measures changes in the number of new construction projects approved. Forecast: -6.1%, Previous: 11.0%. A significant decline would indicate a slowdown in the housing market.
2. ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting (11:30 UTC):
   The European Central Bank releases the minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting, which may provide insights into the ECB’s stance on inflation, interest rates, and economic outlook.
3. US Continuing Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC):
   Tracks the number of people receiving ongoing unemployment benefits. Forecast: 1,830K, Previous: 1,826K. An increase could signal softening in the labor market.
4. US Core CPI (MoM) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   A key measure of underlying inflation, excluding food and energy. Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.3%. Lower inflation could ease pressure on the Fed for future rate hikes.
5. US Core CPI (YoY) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Year-on-year measure of core inflation. Forecast: 3.2%, Previous: 3.2%. Steady inflation would signal controlled price pressures.
6. US CPI (MoM) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Overall consumer price index reflecting monthly inflation. Forecast: 0.1%, Previous: 0.2%. Slower inflation growth could soften the USD.
7. US CPI (YoY) (Sep) (12:30 UTC):
   Year-on-year inflation rate. Forecast: 2.3%, Previous: 2.5%. A decrease may reduce expectations of further Fed rate hikes.
8. US Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC):
   Measures new filings for unemployment benefits. Forecast: 231K, Previous: 225K. An increase could signal weakening in the labor market.
9. FOMC Member Williams Speaks (15:00 UTC):
   Remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, which could offer insights into the Federal Reserve’s view on inflation and interest rates.
10. US 30-Year Bond Auction (17:00 UTC):
    The auction of 30-year Treasury bonds. Previous yield: 4.015%. Higher yields could signal rising borrowing costs and inflation expectations.
11. US Federal Budget Balance (Sep) (18:00 UTC):
    Tracks the difference between the US government’s revenue and spending. Previous: -$380.0B. A larger deficit could signal fiscal stress and weaken the USD.
12. Fed’s Balance Sheet (20:30 UTC):
    Weekly update on the Federal Reserve’s total assets. Previous: $7,047B. Changes in the balance sheet can signal liquidity trends and the Fed’s stance on tightening or loosening policy.
13. New Zealand Business NZ PMI (Sep) (21:30 UTC):
    Measures the performance of New Zealand’s manufacturing sector. Previous: 45.8. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the sector.

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Market Impact Analysis

• Australia Building Approvals:
  A sharp decline in building approvals would likely weigh on the AUD, signaling a cooling housing market.
• ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes:
  Any signals of continued hawkishness or dovishness from the ECB will impact the EUR. Hawkish tones would support the EUR, while dovish language may weaken it.
• US CPI and Core CPI Data (MoM, YoY):
  Lower-than-expected inflation figures would reduce expectations of future Fed rate hikes, likely weakening the USD and boosting equities. Conversely, higher inflation would increase expectations of further tightening, supporting the USD.
• US Jobless Claims (Initial & Continuing):
  Rising claims could signal weakening labor market conditions, potentially softening the USD. Lower-than-expected claims would indicate a strong labor market, supporting the USD.
• US 30-Year Bond Auction:
  Higher yields in the bond auction may reflect rising inflation expectations or fiscal pressures, supporting the USD. Lower yields would indicate more stable inflation outlooks.
• Federal Budget Balance:
  A larger deficit may raise concerns about fiscal sustainability, putting downward pressure on the USD. A smaller deficit could be positive for the USD.
• New Zealand Business PMI:
  A PMI reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which may weaken the NZD as it signals weaker economic activity.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, driven by critical inflation data from the US and central bank communications from the ECB and Fed. The US CPI figures and jobless claims data will be particularly crucial in shaping market sentiment on inflation and future rate hikes.

Impact Score: 8/10, with major focus on US inflation data, which could significantly affect expectations of Federal Reserve monetary policy and global market dynamics.