Jeremy Oles

Published On: 09/07/2025
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By Published On: 09/07/2025
Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)StateImportanceEventForecastPrevious
12:30🇺🇸2 pointsContinuing Jobless Claims———-1,964K
12:30🇺🇸3 pointsInitial Jobless Claims235K233K
17:00🇺🇸3 points30-Year Bond Auction———-4.844%
17:15🇺🇸2 pointsFed Waller Speaks———-———-
18:30🇺🇸2 pointsFOMC Member Daly Speaks———-———-
22:30🇳🇿2 pointsBusiness NZ PMI (Jun)———-47.5

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 10, 2025

United States – Labor Market & Fed Commentary

Continuing Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC

  • Forecast: 1,964K (no previous)
  • Impact: A decline in ongoing claims signals a resilient labor market; could reduce expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, supporting USD and bond yields.

Initial Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC

  • Forecast: 235K | Previous: 233K
  • Impact: A slight increase suggests early signs of labor market softening. If claims stabilize above 240K, it may reinforce a dovish Fed outlook.

30-Year Bond Auction – 17:00 UTC

  • Previous Yield: 4.844%
  • Impact: Demand levels will be closely watched; weak auction could push long-dated yields higher, pressuring mortgage and long-duration assets.

Fed Governor Waller Speaks – 17:15 UTC

  • Impact: His comments on inflation and economic conditions can shift policy expectations. Hawkish remarks push yields higher, while dovish remarks support bonds and equities.

FOMC Member Daly Speaks – 18:30 UTC

  • Impact: Additional Fed commentary may reinforce or contradict market sentiment. Her tone will influence rate-cut expectations.

Asia-Pacific – New Zealand

Business NZ PMI (Jun) – 22:30 UTC

  • Forecast: 47.5 (no previous)
  • Impact: A weak PMI below 50 indicates contraction in business activity. Continued weakness may pressure NZD and raise expectations for RBNZ policy support.

Market Impact Analysis

  • Labor data and Fed speak will dominate U.S. market sentiment. Softening labor figures and dovish commentary may press bond yields and support risk assets.
  • 30-year auction could trigger volatility in the Treasury curve, influencing mortgage rates and long-duration equities.
  • NZ PMI adds modest overnight pressure on NZD, with minimal global economic impact unless it signals broader Asia-Pacific slowdown.

Overall Impact Score: 7/10

Key Watchpoints

  • Initial Jobless Claims above 240K would strongly enhance dovish Fed expectations.
  • Auction demand/effect on long-term bond yields—critical for mortgage-sensitive sectors.
  • Fed speakers’ tone will set the tone ahead of upcoming CPI and policy review data.
  • NZ business sentiment may affect regional currency flows and risk appetite in Asia markets.