Jeremy Oles
Share it!
| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | | Previous |
| 12:30 |  | 2 points | Continuing Jobless Claims | ———- | 1,964K |
| 12:30 | | 3 points | Initial Jobless Claims | 235K | 233K |
| 17:00 | | 3 points | 30-Year Bond Auction | ———- | 4.844% |
| 17:15 | | 2 points | Fed Waller Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 18:30 | | 2 points | FOMC Member Daly Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 22:30 |  | 2 points | Business NZ PMI (Jun) | ———- | 47.5 |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 10, 2025
United States – Labor Market & Fed Commentary
Continuing Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC
- Forecast: 1,964K (no previous)
- Impact: A decline in ongoing claims signals a resilient labor market; could reduce expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts, supporting USD and bond yields.
Initial Jobless Claims – 12:30 UTC
- Forecast: 235K | Previous: 233K
- Impact: A slight increase suggests early signs of labor market softening. If claims stabilize above 240K, it may reinforce a dovish Fed outlook.
30-Year Bond Auction – 17:00 UTC
- Previous Yield: 4.844%
- Impact: Demand levels will be closely watched; weak auction could push long-dated yields higher, pressuring mortgage and long-duration assets.
Fed Governor Waller Speaks – 17:15 UTC
- Impact: His comments on inflation and economic conditions can shift policy expectations. Hawkish remarks push yields higher, while dovish remarks support bonds and equities.
FOMC Member Daly Speaks – 18:30 UTC
- Impact: Additional Fed commentary may reinforce or contradict market sentiment. Her tone will influence rate-cut expectations.
Asia-Pacific – New Zealand
Business NZ PMI (Jun) – 22:30 UTC
- Forecast: 47.5 (no previous)
- Impact: A weak PMI below 50 indicates contraction in business activity. Continued weakness may pressure NZD and raise expectations for RBNZ policy support.
Market Impact Analysis
- Labor data and Fed speak will dominate U.S. market sentiment. Softening labor figures and dovish commentary may press bond yields and support risk assets.
- 30-year auction could trigger volatility in the Treasury curve, influencing mortgage rates and long-duration equities.
- NZ PMI adds modest overnight pressure on NZD, with minimal global economic impact unless it signals broader Asia-Pacific slowdown.
Overall Impact Score: 7/10
Key Watchpoints
- Initial Jobless Claims above 240K would strongly enhance dovish Fed expectations.
- Auction demand/effect on long-term bond yields—critical for mortgage-sensitive sectors.
- Fed speakers’ tone will set the tone ahead of upcoming CPI and policy review data.
- NZ business sentiment may affect regional currency flows and risk appetite in Asia markets.
