Upcoming economic events 10 December 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	NAB Business Confidence (Nov)	———	5
03:00		2 points	Trade Balance (USD) (Nov)	94.00B	95.27B
03:00		2 points	Imports (YoY) (Nov)	0.3%	-2.3%
03:00		2 points	Exports (YoY) (Nov)	8.5%	12.7%
03:30		3 points	RBA Interest Rate Decision (Dec)	4.35%	4.35%
03:30		2 points	RBA Rate Statement	———	———
10:00		2 points	OPEC Meeting	———	———
10:00		2 points	Eurogroup Meetings	———	———
13:30		2 points	Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3)	2.2%	2.5%
13:30		2 points	Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3)	1.9%	0.4%
17:00		2 points	EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook	———	———
17:00		2 points	WASDE Report	———	———
18:00		2 points	3-Year Note Auction	———	4.152%
21:30		2 points	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	———	1.232M
23:50		2 points	BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q4)	1.8	4.5

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 10, 2024

1. Australia NAB Business Confidence (Nov) (00:30 UTC):
   • Previous: 5.
     Reflects business sentiment across Australia. Positive sentiment supports the AUD, while a decline indicates caution among businesses, potentially weighing on the currency.
2. China Trade Data (Nov) (03:00 UTC):
   • Trade Balance: Forecast: $94.00B, Previous: $95.27B.
   • Imports (YoY): Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: -2.3%.
   • Exports (YoY): Forecast: 8.5%, Previous: 12.7%.
     Strong exports or recovery in imports would indicate improving global and domestic demand, supporting the CNY and risk sentiment. Weak data might suggest headwinds for China’s economy, weighing on the CNY and commodity-linked currencies like AUD.
3. Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision & Statement (03:30 UTC):
   • Forecast: 4.35%, Previous: 4.35%.
     A hawkish tone or unexpected rate hike would support the AUD. Dovish commentary emphasizing economic risks could weigh on the currency.
4. Eurozone & OPEC Meetings (10:00 UTC):
   • The Eurogroup meeting focuses on economic and financial issues within the Eurozone.
   • The OPEC meeting discusses oil production policies and market conditions. Output adjustments would impact oil prices and commodity-linked currencies.
5. US Labor Productivity & Costs (Q3) (13:30 UTC):
   • Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ): Forecast: 2.2%, Previous: 2.5%.
   • Unit Labor Costs (QoQ): Forecast: 1.9%, Previous: 0.4%.
     Higher productivity supports economic efficiency, benefiting the USD. Rising labor costs indicate wage pressures, which may reinforce inflation concerns and support the USD.
6. US Energy & Agricultural Reports (17:00 UTC):
   • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook: Provides insights into energy demand and production trends, influencing oil and energy markets.
   • WASDE Report: Updates on agricultural supply and demand, impacting commodity markets.
7. US 3-Year Note Auction (18:00 UTC):
   • Previous Yield: 4.152%.
     Rising yields reflect higher inflation expectations or increased demand for returns, supporting the USD.
8. US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30 UTC):
   • Previous: 1.232M.
     A drawdown suggests stronger demand, supporting oil prices and energy-linked currencies. A build indicates weaker demand, pressuring prices.
9. Japan BSI Large Manufacturing Conditions (Q4) (23:50 UTC):
   • Forecast: 1.8, Previous: 4.5.
     Measures business conditions among large manufacturers. Improving conditions support the JPY, while declining sentiment may weigh on the currency.

Market Impact Analysis

• Australia NAB & RBA Decision:
  A hawkish RBA or improving business confidence would support the AUD. Weak confidence or dovish policy tones could weigh on the currency.
• China Trade Data:
  Strong trade figures, particularly import recovery, would support the CNY and improve global risk sentiment, benefiting commodity-linked currencies like AUD. Weak data might dampen sentiment.
• US Productivity & Costs:
  Rising productivity and stable labor costs would support the USD, signaling economic efficiency. Escalating labor costs could reinforce inflationary pressures, also supporting the USD.
• Oil & Commodity Reports:
  OPEC decisions, EIA data, and WASDE updates will influence commodity prices and linked currencies like CAD and AUD.
• Japan Manufacturing Sentiment:
  Improving business conditions would support the JPY, signaling resilience in the manufacturing sector. Weak data might reflect ongoing challenges, weighing on the currency.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, with significant attention on China’s trade data, RBA’s decision, US labor productivity, and OPEC’s oil market insights.

Impact Score: 8/10, driven by global trade data, central bank decisions, and commodity market reports shaping sentiment for AUD, CNY, USD, and JPY.