Upcoming economic events 1 November 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
00:30		2 points	Building Approvals (MoM) (Sep)	1.9%	-6.1%
00:30		2 points	Home Loans (MoM) (Sep)	———	0.7%
00:30		2 points	PPI (YoY) (Q3)	———	4.8%
00:30		2 points	PPI (QoQ) (Q3)	0.7%	1.0%
01:45		2 points	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	49.7	49.3
12:30		2 points	Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Oct)	4.0%	4.0%
12:30		3 points	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Oct)	0.3%	0.4%
12:30		3 points	Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)	108K	254K
12:30		2 points	Participation Rate (Oct)		62.7%
12:30		2 points	Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)	115K	223K
12:30		2 points	U6 Unemployment Rate (Oct)	———	7.7%
12:30		3 points	Unemployment Rate (Oct)	4.1%	4.1%
13:45		3 points	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	47.8	47.8
14:00		2 points	Construction Spending (MoM) (Sep)	0.0%	-0.1%
14:00		2 points	ISM Manufacturing Employment (Oct)	———	43.9
14:00		3 points	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)	47.6	47.2
14:00		3 points	ISM Manufacturing Prices (Oct)	48.9	48.3
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———	480
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———	585
18:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4)	2.7%	2.7%
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———	173.7K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———	296.2K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———	2.7K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———	23.0K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———	27.7K
19:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———	12.8K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———	-28.5K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on November 1, 2024

1. Australia Building Approvals (MoM) (Sep) (00:30 UTC):
   Measures changes in the number of building permits issued. Forecast: 1.9%, Previous: -6.1%. Growth would signal strength in the construction sector, supporting the AUD.
2. Australia Home Loans (MoM) (Sep) (00:30 UTC):
   Measures monthly change in home loan approvals. Previous: 0.7%. Higher approvals indicate demand in the housing market, supporting the AUD.
3. Australia PPI (YoY and QoQ) (Q3) (00:30 UTC):
   Tracks changes in producer prices. Previous QoQ: 1.0%, YoY: 4.8%. Lower PPI growth would suggest easing inflation, reducing pressure on the RBA for rate hikes.
4. China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct) (01:45 UTC):
   A key indicator of the health of China’s manufacturing sector. Forecast: 49.7, Previous: 49.3. Below 50 signals contraction, indicating economic slowing in China.
5. US Average Hourly Earnings (YoY & MoM) (Oct) (12:30 UTC):
   Measures wage inflation. Forecast YoY: 4.0%, MoM: 0.3%, Previous MoM: 0.4%. Higher-than-expected earnings would support the USD by indicating inflationary pressures.
6. US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) (12:30 UTC):
   Tracks changes in employment levels. Forecast: 108K, Previous: 254K. Lower job growth may suggest labor market softening, impacting Fed policy expectations.
7. US Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) (12:30 UTC):
   Measures private sector employment changes. Forecast: 115K, Previous: 223K. Weak figures may indicate slowing economic momentum.
8. US Unemployment Rate (Oct) (12:30 UTC):
   Forecast: 4.1%, Previous: 4.1%. Stable or rising unemployment would suggest labor market weakening.
9. S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Oct) (13:45 UTC):
   Tracks the US manufacturing sector. Forecast: 47.8, Previous: 47.8. Below 50 signals contraction, suggesting industrial slowdown.
10. US Construction Spending (MoM) (Sep) (14:00 UTC):
    Measures monthly change in construction spending. Forecast: 0.0%, Previous: -0.1%. An increase signals demand in the construction sector.
11. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) (14:00 UTC):
    Forecast: 47.6, Previous: 47.2. A reading below 50 signals contraction, potentially dampening the USD.
12. ISM Manufacturing Prices (Oct) (14:00 UTC):
    Forecast: 48.9, Previous: 48.3. A reading below 50 suggests easing input prices, reducing inflationary pressures.
13. US Baker Hughes Oil & Total Rig Counts (17:00 UTC):
    Tracks active oil and gas rigs. A rising count suggests increased production, potentially affecting oil prices.
14. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q4) (18:00 UTC):
    Real-time estimate of Q4 US GDP growth. Previous: 2.7%. Updates here influence GDP expectations and can impact the USD.
15. CFTC Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC):
    • Crude Oil (Previous: 173.7K): Indicates market sentiment toward oil.
    • Gold (Previous: 296.2K): Reflects safe-haven demand.
    • Nasdaq 100 (Previous: 2.7K) & S&P 500 (Previous: 23.0K): Reflects equity market sentiment.
    • AUD (Previous: 27.7K), JPY (Previous: 12.8K), EUR (Previous: -28.5K): Shows currency sentiment.

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Market Impact Analysis

• Australian Building Approvals & Home Loans:
  Higher figures would indicate strong housing demand, supporting the AUD. Lower approvals or loans suggest slowing housing activity, potentially weakening the currency.
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI:
  A reading below 50 indicates contraction in China’s manufacturing sector, which would dampen risk sentiment and weigh on commodities.
• US Average Hourly Earnings & Nonfarm Payrolls:
  Higher earnings or a strong payroll increase would support the USD by reinforcing inflationary pressures. Weak payrolls or lower earnings growth could soften the USD, signaling potential economic cooling.
• US ISM Manufacturing Data:
  A PMI below 50 and lower manufacturing prices suggest contraction and easing inflation, which could weigh on the USD by reducing pressure on the Fed to hike rates.
• CFTC Speculative Net Positions:
  Changes in speculative positions reflect market sentiment across major commodities and currencies, influencing asset prices based on demand expectations.

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Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, with a focus on key US employment data, manufacturing PMI readings from the US and China, and housing data from Australia. These events will shape expectations for economic strength, inflation, and central bank policy.

Impact Score: 8/10, due to the combination of critical labor market data, manufacturing figures, and commodity market sentiment that will influence global economic outlook and policy paths.