Upcoming economic events 1 July 2025

Jeremy Oles

Published On: 30/06/2025

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By Jeremy OlesPublished On: 30/06/2025

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun) – 01:45 UTC
- Expected: 49.2 (previous 48.3)
- Impact: A dip below 50 signals continued contraction; any improvement supports CNY, regional equities, and commodity-linked currencies.
10-Year JGB Auction – 03:35 UTC
- Expected yield: ~1.512%
- Impact: Auction demand influences JPY yields and bond market dynamics; weak demand may lift yields and weaken the yen.

ECB Speeches:
- De Guindos – 07:40 UTC
- Elderson – 08:40 UTC
- Schnabel – 10:40 UTC
- Lagarde – 13:30 UTC
HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jun) – 08:00 UTC
- Expected: 49.4 (previous 49.4)
CPI Releases (Jun) – 09:00 UTC
- Core CPI YoY: 2.3% (prev 2.3%)
- Headline CPI YoY: 2.0% (prev 1.9%)
Impact: Manufacturing stagnation plus stable CPI will dominate expectations around EUR interest-rate differentials. ECB speakers’ tone—hawkish vs dovish—will be pivotal in shaping EUR direction.

Fed Chair Powell Speaks – 13:30 UTC
- Impact: Key global market driver; policy hints affect USD, Treasury yields, and stocks.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) – 13:45 UTC
- Expected: 52.0 (same)
- Impact: Confirms manufacturing expansion; aligns with risk-on sentiment.
Construction Spending (May) – 14:00 UTC
- Expected: –0.1% (prev –0.4%)
- Impact: Provides insight into fixed investment; any rebound boosts building sector sentiment.
ISM Manufacturing Employment & PMI & Prices (Jun) – 14:00 UTC
- PMI: 48.8 (prev 48.5)
- Prices Index: 70.2 (prev 69.4)
- Impact: Slight recovery in PMI and elevated prices may reflect ongoing cost pressures, influencing Fed policy outlook.
JOLTS Job Openings (May) – 14:00 UTC
- Expected: 7.45M (prev 7.39M)
- Impact: Higher job openings suggest labor market resilience, which can dampen rate-cut speculation.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) – 17:00 UTC
- Expected: 2.9% (same)
- Impact: Suggests moderate growth continues—supportive for equities but may limit aggressive Fed easing.

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock – 20:30 UTC
- Previous draw: –4.277M
- Impact: Another draw supports oil prices and may feed through to inflation expectations and energy equity stocks.

U.S. events dominate the day, with Powell’s remarks, ISM/PMI readings, and JOLTS data positioning markets for Fed outlook and growth risks.
Eurozone manufacturing and CPI, combined with multiple ECB speeches, will influence EUR and bond yield expectations.
Asian data (China PMI, Japan auction) shapes risk tone for the start of the week.
Oil inventory data can drive late-session energy and inflation-sensitive moves.

Key Watchpoints:

Powell’s commentary and U.S. inflation/wage manufacturing signals—critical for Fed trajectory.
EUR-based PMI and ECB tones—will define risk appetite in European markets.
China PMI and Japanese bond auction—early indicators for the global risk backdrop.
Oil draw may provide a late trigger for commodity-linked inflation pricing.

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	`Event`	`Forecast`	Previous
01:45		`2 points`	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (Jun)	49.2	48.3
03:35		`2 points`	10-Year JGB Auction	———-	1.512%
07:40		`2 points`	ECB’s De Guindos Speaks	———-	———-
08:00		`2 points`	HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jun)	49.4	49.4
08:40		`2 points`	ECB’s Elderson Speaks	———-	———-
09:00		`2 points`	Core CPI (YoY) (Jun)	2.3%	2.3%
09:00		`2 points`	CPI (MoM) (Jun)	———-	0.0%
09:00		`3 points`	CPI (YoY) (Jun)	2.0%	1.9%
10:40		`2 points`	ECB’s Schnabel Speaks	———-	———-
13:30		`3 points`	Fed Chair Powell Speaks	———-	———-
13:30		`2 points`	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———-	———-
13:45		`3 points`	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun)	52.0	52.0
14:00		`2 points`	Construction Spending (MoM) (May)	-0.1%	-0.4%
14:00		`2 points`	ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jun)	———-	46.8
14:00		`3 points`	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)	48.8	48.5
14:00		`3 points`	ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun)	70.2	69.4
14:00		`3 points`	JOLTS Job Openings (May)	7.450M	7.391M
17:00		`2 points`	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2)	2.9%	2.9%
20:30		`2 points`	API Weekly Crude Oil Stock	———-	-4.277M