Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | | Previous |
| 01:45 |  | 2 points | Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (Jun) | 49.2 | 48.3 |
| 03:35 |  | 2 points | 10-Year JGB Auction | ———- | 1.512% |
| 07:40 |  | 2 points | ECB’s De Guindos Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 08:00 | | 2 points | HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 49.4 | 49.4 |
| 08:40 | | 2 points | ECB’s Elderson Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 09:00 | | 2 points | Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| 09:00 | | 2 points | CPI (MoM) (Jun) | ———- | 0.0% |
| 09:00 | | 3 points | CPI (YoY) (Jun) | 2.0% | 1.9% |
| 10:40 | | 2 points | ECB’s Schnabel Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 13:30 |  | 3 points | Fed Chair Powell Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 13:30 | | 2 points | ECB President Lagarde Speaks | ———- | ———- |
| 13:45 | | 3 points | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 52.0 | 52.0 |
| 14:00 | | 2 points | Construction Spending (MoM) (May) | -0.1% | -0.4% |
| 14:00 | | 2 points | ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jun) | ———- | 46.8 |
| 14:00 | | 3 points | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 48.8 | 48.5 |
| 14:00 | | 3 points | ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun) | 70.2 | 69.4 |
| 14:00 | | 3 points | JOLTS Job Openings (May) | 7.450M | 7.391M |
| 17:00 | | 2 points | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) | 2.9% | 2.9% |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | ———- | -4.277M |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 1, 2025
Asia – China & Japan
- Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun) – 01:45 UTC
- Expected: 49.2 (previous 48.3)
- Impact: A dip below 50 signals continued contraction; any improvement supports CNY, regional equities, and commodity-linked currencies.
- 10-Year JGB Auction – 03:35 UTC
- Expected yield: ~1.512%
- Impact: Auction demand influences JPY yields and bond market dynamics; weak demand may lift yields and weaken the yen.
Europe – Eurozone Manufacturing & Inflation
- ECB Speeches:
- De Guindos – 07:40 UTC
- Elderson – 08:40 UTC
- Schnabel – 10:40 UTC
- Lagarde – 13:30 UTC
- HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jun) – 08:00 UTC
- Expected: 49.4 (previous 49.4)
- CPI Releases (Jun) – 09:00 UTC
- Core CPI YoY: 2.3% (prev 2.3%)
- Headline CPI YoY: 2.0% (prev 1.9%)
United States – Fed Speeches & Manufacturing Data
- Fed Chair Powell Speaks – 13:30 UTC
- Impact: Key global market driver; policy hints affect USD, Treasury yields, and stocks.
- S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) – 13:45 UTC
- Expected: 52.0 (same)
- Impact: Confirms manufacturing expansion; aligns with risk-on sentiment.
- Construction Spending (May) – 14:00 UTC
- Expected: –0.1% (prev –0.4%)
- Impact: Provides insight into fixed investment; any rebound boosts building sector sentiment.
- ISM Manufacturing Employment & PMI & Prices (Jun) – 14:00 UTC
- PMI: 48.8 (prev 48.5)
- Prices Index: 70.2 (prev 69.4)
- Impact: Slight recovery in PMI and elevated prices may reflect ongoing cost pressures, influencing Fed policy outlook.
- JOLTS Job Openings (May) – 14:00 UTC
- Expected: 7.45M (prev 7.39M)
- Impact: Higher job openings suggest labor market resilience, which can dampen rate-cut speculation.
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q2) – 17:00 UTC
- Expected: 2.9% (same)
- Impact: Suggests moderate growth continues—supportive for equities but may limit aggressive Fed easing.
Commodity & Energy
- API Weekly Crude Oil Stock – 20:30 UTC
- Previous draw: –4.277M
- Impact: Another draw supports oil prices and may feed through to inflation expectations and energy equity stocks.
Market Impact Analysis
- U.S. events dominate the day, with Powell’s remarks, ISM/PMI readings, and JOLTS data positioning markets for Fed outlook and growth risks.
- Eurozone manufacturing and CPI, combined with multiple ECB speeches, will influence EUR and bond yield expectations.
- Asian data (China PMI, Japan auction) shapes risk tone for the start of the week.
- Oil inventory data can drive late-session energy and inflation-sensitive moves.
Overall Impact Score: 9/10
Key Watchpoints:
- Powell’s commentary and U.S. inflation/wage manufacturing signals—critical for Fed trajectory.
- EUR-based PMI and ECB tones—will define risk appetite in European markets.
- China PMI and Japanese bond auction—early indicators for the global risk backdrop.
- Oil draw may provide a late trigger for commodity-linked inflation pricing.
