Upcoming economic events 1 July 2024

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	Retail Sales (MoM) (May)	———	0.1%
01:45		2 points	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun)	51.2	51.7
07:00		2 points	European Central Bank Non-monetary Policy Meeting	———	———
08:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jun)	45.6	47.3
13:45		3 points	S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Jun)	51.7	51.3
14:00		2 points	Construction Spending (MoM) (May)	———	-0.1%
14:00		2 points	ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jun)	———	51.1
14:00		3 points	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)	49.0	48.7
14:00		3 points	ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun)	———	57.0
16:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)	———	———
19:00		2 points	ECB President Lagarde Speaks	———	———
22:00		2 points	NZIER Business Confidence (Q2)	———	-25%

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on July 1, 2024

1. Retail Sales (May): Measures consumer spending changes. Previous value: 0.1%.
2. Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Indicates China’s manufacturing health. Forecast: 51.2, Previous: 51.7.
3. European Central Bank Meeting: Discusses non-monetary policies in the Eurozone.
4. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Tracks Eurozone manufacturing activity. Forecast: 45.6, Previous: 47.3.
5. US Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Measures US manufacturing health. Forecast: 51.7, Previous: 51.3.
6. Construction Spending (May): Indicates spending on US construction projects. Previous value: 0.1%.
7. ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jun): Tracks US manufacturing jobs. Previous value: 51.1.
8. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun): Measures overall US manufacturing activity. Forecast: 49.0, Previous: 48.7.
9. ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jun): Indicates US manufacturing price trends. Previous value: 57.0.
10. Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3): Estimates US GDP growth for Q3.
11. ECB President Lagarde Speaks: Remarks from the ECB President can influence markets.
12. NZIER Business Confidence (Q2): Reflects New Zealand business confidence. Previous value: -25%.

Market Impact Analysis

• Retail Sales: Stable figures support markets; deviations can affect consumer confidence.
• Caixin Manufacturing PMI: Stability supports global markets; deviations could signal issues in China’s economy.
• ECB Meeting: Expected discussions have minimal impact unless unexpected topics arise.
• Eurozone Manufacturing PMI: Stability supports markets; significant deviations could increase volatility.
• US Manufacturing PMI: Consistent data supports positive sentiment; deviations could impact volatility.
• Construction Spending: Stable spending indicates growth; deviations affect economic perception.
• ISM Manufacturing Employment: Stability supports market confidence; changes could lead to volatility.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI: Stability supports markets; significant deviations could impact sentiment.
• ISM Manufacturing Prices: Stable prices indicate manageable inflation; deviations could raise concerns.
• Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Expected estimates reassure growth; differences affect outlook.
• ECB President Lagarde: Expected remarks are stable; unexpected statements could cause volatility.
• NZIER Business Confidence: Stable confidence indicates steady environment; deviations impact sentiment.

Overall Impact

• Volatility: Moderate, potentially high if multiple events deviate from expectations.
• Impact Score: 6/10, indicating significant potential market movements, especially if key data or speeches diverge from forecasts.