Upcoming economic events 1 August  2025

Time(GMT+0/UTC+0)	State	Importance	Event	Forecast	Previous
01:30		2 points	PPI (QoQ) (Q2)	0.9%	0.9%
01:30		2 points	PPI (YoY) (Q2)	———-	3.7%
01:45		2 points	Caixin Manufacturing PMI (MoM) (Jul)	50.2	50.4
08:00		2 points	HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	49.8	49.5
09:00		2 points	Core CPI (YoY) (Jul)	2.3%	2.3%
09:00		2 points	CPI (MoM) (Jul)	———-	0.3%
09:00		3 points	CPI (YoY) (Jul)	1.9%	2.0%
12:30		3 points	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jul)	0.3%	0.2%
12:30		2 points	Average Hourly Earnings (YoY) (YoY) (Jul)	3.8%	3.7%
12:30		3 points	Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)	106K	147K
12:30		2 points	Participation Rate (Jul)	———-	62.3%
12:30		2 points	Private Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul)	100K	74K
12:30		2 points	U6 Unemployment Rate (Jul)	———-	7.7%
12:30		3 points	Unemployment Rate (Jul)	4.2%	4.1%
13:45		3 points	S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	49.5	52.9
14:00		2 points	Construction Spending (MoM) (Jun)	0.0%	-0.3%
14:00		2 points	ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jul)	———-	45.0
14:00		3 points	ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul)	49.5	49.0
14:00		3 points	ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jul)	69.8	69.7
14:00		2 points	Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Jul)	4.4%	5.0%
14:00		2 points	Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations (Jul)	3.6%	4.0%
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Expectations (Jul)	58.6	58.1
14:00		2 points	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jul)	61.8	60.7
17:00		2 points	Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3)	2.3%	2.3%
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count	———-	415
17:00		2 points	U.S. Baker Hughes Total Rig Count	———-	542
19:30		2 points	CFTC Crude Oil speculative net positions	———-	153.3K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Gold speculative net positions	———-	253.0K
19:30		2 points	CFTC Nasdaq 100 speculative net positions	———-	30.7K
19:30		2 points	CFTC S&P 500 speculative net positions	———-	-168.5K
19:30		2 points	CFTC AUD speculative net positions	———-	-81.3K
19:30		2 points	CFTC JPY speculative net positions	———-	106.6K
19:30		2 points	CFTC EUR speculative net positions	———-	125.5K

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on August 1, 2025

Asia – Australia & China

Australia – PPI (Q2, QoQ/YoY) – 01:30 UTC

• Expected: Q2 QoQ +0.9% (prev +0.9%)
• YoY: ~3.7%
• Impact: Stable producer inflation suggests moderate pricing pressure. A higher reading could deepen concerns for RBA and weigh on AUD; softer outcome supports easing expectations.

China – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul, MoM) – 01:45 UTC

• Expected: 50.2 (prev 50.4)
• Impact: A drop toward 50 from above signals slower expansion. Continued deceleration may weigh on risk sentiment, CNY, and commodity-linked currencies.

Europe – Eurozone PMI & Inflation

HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jul) – 08:00 UTC

• Expected: 49.8 (prev 49.5)
• Impact: Near contraction territory; weak manufacturing may soften risk tone in European equities and weigh on EUR.

Eurozone CPI (Jul) – 09:00 UTC

• Core YoY: 2.3% (prev same)
• MoM: +0.3%
• Headline YoY: 1.9% (prev 2.0%)
• Impact: Core holding steady is key for ECB outlook. A rebound in headline inflation may support a hawkish undertone; a miss could reinforce dovish sentiment and pressure EUR.

United States – Jobs, Manufacturing, Sentiment & Spending

Nonfarm Payrolls (Jul) – 12:30 UTC

• Expected: +106K (prev +147K)
• Impact: Slower job growth may revive speculation for Fed cuts. A miss could pressure USD and lift equities/bonds.

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM/YoY) (Jul) – 12:30 UTC

• Expected: +0.3% MoM; 3.8% YoY (prev 3.7%)
• Impact: Persistent wage gains could keep inflation sticky and support rate-hike caution; weaker numbers ease those concerns.

Unemployment Rate & Participation (Jul) – 12:30 UTC

• Unemployment: 4.2% (prev 4.1%)
• Participation: ~62.3%
• Impact: Rising unemployment and stable participation may signal softening labor conditions, reinforcing dovish Fed narrative.

Private Payrolls (Jul) – 12:30 UTC

• Expected: +100K (prev +74K)
• Impact: Slower private sector hiring suggests a cooling economy; reinforces dovish sentiment if sustained.

Personal Spending & Employment Cost Index (Q2) – 12:30 UTC

• Spending: +0.4% (prev –0.1%)
• ECI QoQ: 0.8% (prev 0.9%)
• Impact: Consumer spending recovers, supporting growth but modest ECI keeps wage pressure contained. Mixed signals for Fed.

Core PCE Price Index (Q2 QoQ & YoY) – 12:30 UTC

• Expected: YoY ~2.7%, MoM ~0.3%
• Impact: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge remains critical. Any surprise above forecast could delay rate cuts; softness opens door for dovish pivot.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jul) – 13:45 UTC

• Expected: 49.5 (prev 52.9)
• Impact: Slumping into contraction territory would signal broader weakness, pressuring growth and equities.

ISM Manufacturing PMI & Sub-Indices (Jul) – 14:00 UTC

• PMI: 49.5 (prev 49.0); Prices: 69.8
• Impact: Slight uptick in PMI is neutral; persistent pricing signals cost pressures. Mixed reading raises concerns about a slowdown combined with inflation.

Michigan Consumer Survey (Jul) – 14:00 UTC

• Sentiment: 61.8 (prev 60.7); Expectations: 58.6; 1-Year Inflation: 4.4% (prev 5.0); 5-Year: 3.6% (prev 4.0)
• Impact: Improved sentiment and lower inflation expectations support risk appetite. Lower expectations are dovish for USD.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) – 17:00 UTC

• Expected: 2.3% (same)
• Impact: Confirms moderate growth outlook—keeps Fed’s cautious stance relevant.

Commodity & Positioning Signals

U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count – 17:00 UTC

• Previous: ~415
• Impact: Continued decline may suggest softening supply and support oil prices.

CFTC Speculative Net Positions (19:30 UTC)

• Crude: 153.3K • Gold: 253.0K • Nasdaq: 30.7K
• S&P 500: –168.5K • AUD: –81.3K • JPY: 106.6K • EUR: 125.5K
• Impact: Elevated long positions in gold and oil hint at inflation risk hedging; strong long EUR positioning may set up for profit-taking if sentiment shifts. AUD short stance shows bearish sentiment on commodity-linked currencies.

Market Impact Analysis

• U.S. labor and inflation data remain central. Underperformance on payrolls or PCE may prompt reversal in Fed guidance, supporting bonds and equity returns. Strong wage or spending figures could sustain rate-hike caution.
• Manufacturing PMIs in the U.S. and China suggest growing weakness, fueling concerns over stagnating growth.
• Eurozone inflation stability holds weight for ECB policy signals; any weakness may reinforce dovish lean.
• Australian PPI and China PMI data shape broader regional inflation and demand expectations.
• Speculative positioning provides insight into possible overbought markets—particularly in oil, gold, and EUR flows.

Overall Impact Score: 9/10

Key Watchpoints:

• Surprises in Core PCE—likely the primary driver for Fed tone.
• Nonfarm payrolls consistency or slowdown—critical for economic momentum signals.
• ISM and S&P Global PMIs—downgrades signal weakening orders and activity.
• Michigan inflation expectations—if falling, supportive of equity risk appetite.
• Positioning extremes in crude, gold, and EUR—potential sources for sudden sentiment shifts or corrections.