Jeremy Oles
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| Time(GMT+0/UTC+0) | State | Importance | Event | Forecast | Previous |
| 01:30 |  | 2 points | Trade Balance (Jun) | 4.950B | 5.773B |
| 01:45 |  | 2 points | Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 51.6 | 51.8 |
| 08:00 |  | 2 points | ECB Economic Bulletin | ——— | ——— |
| 08:00 | | 2 points | HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 45.6 | 45.8 |
| 09:00 | | 2 points | Unemployment Rate (Jun) | 6.4% | 6.4% |
| 12:30 |  | 2 points | Continuing Jobless Claims | ——— | 1,851K |
| 12:30 | | 3 points | Initial Jobless Claims | 239K | 235K |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2) | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| 12:30 | | 2 points | Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2) | 1.6% | 4.0% |
| 13:45 | | 3 points | S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 49.5 | 51.6 |
| 14:00 | | 2 points | Construction Spending (MoM) (Jun) | 0.2% | -0.1% |
| 14:00 | | 2 points | ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jul) | ——— | 49.3 |
| 14:00 | | 3 points | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul) | 49.0 | 48.5 |
| 14:00 | | 3 points | ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jul) | 52.5 | 52.1 |
| 16:30 | | 2 points | Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3) | 2.8% | 2.8% |
| 20:30 | | 2 points | Fed’s Balance Sheet | ——— | 7,205B |
Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on August 1, 2024
- Australia Trade Balance (Jun): Difference between exports and imports. Forecast: 4.950B, Previous: 5.773B.
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul): Measures manufacturing activity. Forecast: 51.6, Previous: 51.8.
- ECB Economic Bulletin: Insights into economic developments in the Eurozone.
- HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (Jul): Measures activity in the Eurozone manufacturing sector. Forecast: 45.6, Previous: 45.8.
- Eurozone Unemployment Rate (Jun): Percentage of the workforce that is unemployed. Forecast: 6.4%, Previous: 6.4%.
- US Continuing Jobless Claims: Number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits. Previous: 1,851K.
- US Initial Jobless Claims: Number of new unemployment claims. Forecast: 239K, Previous: 235K.
- US Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q2): Measure of labor productivity. Forecast: +1.5%, Previous: +0.2%.
- US Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q2): Measure of the average cost of labor per unit of output. Forecast: +1.6%, Previous: +4.0%.
- S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (Jul): Measures activity in the US manufacturing sector. Forecast: 49.5, Previous: 51.6.
- US Construction Spending (MoM) (Jun): Monthly change in the total value of construction spending. Forecast: +0.2%, Previous: -0.1%.
- ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jul): Measures employment trends in the manufacturing sector. Previous: 49.3.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul): Measures overall activity in the manufacturing sector. Forecast: 49.0, Previous: 48.5.
- ISM Manufacturing Prices (Jul): Measures prices paid in the manufacturing sector. Forecast: 52.5, Previous: 52.1.
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3): Real-time estimate of US GDP growth for Q3. Previous: 2.8%.
- Fed’s Balance Sheet: Weekly update on the Federal Reserve’s assets and liabilities. Previous: 7,205B.
Market Impact Analysis
- Australia Trade Balance: A smaller surplus could indicate weaker export performance, potentially impacting the AUD.
- China Caixin Manufacturing PMI: A reading above 50 indicates expansion; below 50 suggests contraction, impacting CNY and global markets.
- Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and Unemployment Rate: Weak manufacturing PMI suggests sector struggles, impacting EUR; stable unemployment rate may support market confidence.
- US Jobless Claims: Lower claims suggest a strong labor market, supporting USD; higher claims indicate potential economic issues.
- US Nonfarm Productivity and Unit Labor Costs: Rising productivity and stable labor costs support economic growth and USD; higher labor costs may indicate inflationary pressures.
- US Manufacturing PMIs: A PMI below 50 indicates contraction; above 50 indicates expansion, impacting USD and equity markets.
- US Construction Spending: Positive growth supports economic outlook and related sectors.
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow: Provides a real-time estimate of economic growth; stable or increasing estimates support market confidence.
- Fed’s Balance Sheet: Changes in the balance sheet can indicate shifts in monetary policy, impacting USD and market sentiment.
Overall Impact
- Volatility: High, with significant potential reactions in equity, bond, currency, and commodity markets.
- Impact Score: 7/10, indicating a high potential for market movements.
