Many are concerned about the Bitcoin falling. Here’s what we think about this.
To begin with, let’s try to understand what this fall is caused by, from the fundamental viewpoint. Many associate it with breaking the South Korean exchange Cointrail. The stock exchange itself is little-known and very unpopular. But nevertheless, the reason for the fall of bitcoin, allegedly, was found in this. Let us suppose it to be true.
And now let’s speak about more general factors. If you look closely at the graph, you can identify areas where bitcoin can find support and stop. These areas were visible long before its fall – this range is 6500-6000. This is where the currency can stop and bounce. The probability of reversal from these points is pretty high since it is the area where the strong zone of buyers is formed. According to many analysts, the production of bitcoins is breakeven at just above 7000. For many countries, this is the mark, or rather the range of 7000-8000, in which bitcoin is profitable and generally makes sense to mine.
But in fact, the cost of mining of bitcoin varies greatly depending on the region. In some countries, more expensive, in some cheaper. For example, it is known that in South Korea the mining of bitcoins is very expensive and it’s a hopeless business there. Thus, this average price range of 7000-8000, does not reflect the whole situation at all. And all this is because it is necessary to look at the distribution: where the large volumes are mined, where the farms themselves are bigger, and where they are smaller in size, etc., and only then calculate this average value, rather than to consider it being based on a simple aggregated average of all countries. Therefore, this notorious 7000-8000 range needs to be known and taken into account, not to forget about its existence, but also refer to it with a reasonable share of skepticism.
According to the personal opinion of one of our analysts and the predicted scenario, the critical range is much lower, 3000-4000 to be exact. In the analyst’s view, it was where the most volume was accumulated, and the price drop below these points will show that the buyer does not protect his accumulated volume. The behavior, when trading by volume, means that there are no more buyers on the market. This is the first factor.
The second point is – some analysts, that disagree with the opinion of most of their colleagues, they are few, but they are, believe that the critical mark for bitcoin is 1800. Rounding it up, we get a zone of 1800-2000. At the moment, for the absolute majority, this mark is unrealistic. But is it really so? It’s really hard to believe that bitcoin can fall so badly, but we’ve already seen one rapid fall with such a force, just as few people expected. It would not be superfluous to put yourself in the place of a major player in the market and think about what he would do. Having extensive trading experience in terms of volumes in standard markets and observing day-by-day manipulations with them, our analyst asked a similar question. What would be beneficial to him, as a large whale, in this market?
And it would be advantageous to implement the following scenario: to put bitcoin lower, to 3000-4000, do not simply putting it there for a short time, but keeping it there in such a long dump, and even tighten the currency in a sufficiently long flat after this dump. This would entail the final destruction of the HYIP by bitcoin, it would simply cease to believe in its principles. This is necessary in order, first, to throw off excess ballast in the form of hamsters and a number of small players, and second, to remove the excessive competition from the numerous middle level companies that mine bitcoin, and for which the price of profitable mining really is at the level of 7000-8000. All this would allow the market to be cleared and, even to some extent, create a small deficit, to create the most favorable conditions for the subsequent price increase.
You don’t believe in such a development of the story or you don’t even imagine an implementation of such a plan? We recommend turning to the crude oil as the proof that the described scenario can be implemented in the real market, it can be completely traced on the graphs.
Switching to the monthly graphs, you can see how it started. There was the same rally at the very beginning, there were the strongest ups and downs. Especially it is necessary to pay attention to the fact that it was precisely the long and protracted growth that had preceded it. Namely falling to all possible minimums, at the level of ~10.18 $ – the price which even then, and now, looks simply unrealistically fantastic. Falling to levels in which no one believed, all the superfluous players from the market were squeezed out, both hamsters and small oil companies, and only after that, we can see exceptionally long and pleasant growth of quotations.
Yes, undoubtedly, bitcoin and crude oil are two completely different instruments and we do not set the goal to compare them in any way.
Oil demonstrates only the scenario described above, as a visual proof that it is quite feasible and that descent to the “bottom” and even below the “bottom”, and in the case of bitcoin it marks 3000-4000, is very possible and it is necessary to consider this and keep in mind.
Thus, we have two scenarios for the development of events. One of them is easy for buyers and investors, and the second is very, very heavy when everyone will have to climb out of such a long dump. And we need to understand that this dump to the “bottom” will not be instant. It will not happen in an hour or two. It can be days, weeks and even a few months. And the rise from this “bottom” will take exactly the same time. In case of bitcoin, people got used to fast movements which you won’t have to wait for long. But the market never stands still, it always changes. Now there is every reason to believe that these changes have already occurred and the current bitcoin market is completely different from what we used to see 6 months ago. It is likely that all of us now have to wait for long movements.
The scenario described above has the character of an exclusively personal view of the given market and does not pretend to the ultimate truth. Most likely the author decided to share it simply because it would be very interesting to others. We all hope that bitcoin will bounce much earlier, from a mark of 6000 and rush back to growth. This would be much more predictable and easier for investors, but not always better.
In our opinion, the fall can be fast now, and even then, as soon as the price reaches the support zone, the flat begins. Even the fall is already becoming torn. Therefore, all the light that was on the market before this, in our opinion, has ended, and if you do not know how to trade professionally and do not know the basic foundations of the market, it will be very difficult for you. Trading in the mid and long term will be almost unreal for a while. Trading within a day will be possible, but with some experience. It’s not so simple and dumb anymore when you can buy a coin and wait when it grows up, without any effort, without applying any knowledge in the field of trading.
I also want to note that the purpose of this article is not to frighten or distract you from the market. The goal is to make you think critically about the whole situation. Maybe we are wrong in something. Maybe not right at all in everything. But the habit of thinking in two directions every time, especially when trading on the market, often justifies itself.